OWL Week 15 – Gambling Guide Sunday May 17, 2020

A much better round of matches on Sunday, with both of our Value picks coming into play!  See below our notes and picks for Sundays matches.

Charge (7-6) vs Hunters (3-9) – 4AM EST

The Charge have been looking like a top 5 team lately, demonstrating an ability to adapt to the Hero Bans each week.  This culminated in an impressive 3-1 win against the Excelsior last weekend.  Meanwhile, the Hunters have been entertaining, but that has not translated to wins, as they are currently on a 4 match losing streak, including a 3-0 loss to the Spitfire in which they were favorites.  While the meta will most likely be Dive this week, which is all the Hunters are good at, the Charge just finished beating the much better Excelsior in Dive.  Charge cover the -1.5 spread easily to grab a -115 payout.

Spark (5-6) vs Spitfire (4-3) – 6AM EST

This is a very intriguing match, as the Spitfires return last week only told us that they are better than the worst (they beat the Hunters) and worse than the best (they lost to the Charge).  This should tell us a lot about where they stack up in the mid table.  The Spark have struggled in Hero Bans but have picked up 2 wind in their last 3.  I am not sure how much weight to put in that as they were against the Hunters, and the self-imploding Dynasty.  The Spitfire have shown that they are a decent team and I think they will improve after knocking off some of the rust last week.  Spitfire cover -1.5 for a meaty +165 payout.

Fuel (4-5) vs Eternal (6-5) – 3PM EST

From our Picks of the week: The easy money this week is Fuel over the Eternal for a solid +135.  The Eternal are coming off a solid win over the Gladiators last week, in which we took them as underdogs.  They are playing well, especially considering their flex Support Greyy retied, and Damage starter Xzi is still unavailable.  In their absence, South Korean rookie Fielder has looked like a potential rookie of the year candidate on Support, and Soon and NiCOgdh have stepped up in their Damage roles.  On top of that, they have played their best when Rienhardt is available, giving the Fusion their only loss, and taking the Shock to the brink.  Other than that, I have trouble getting excited about the Eternal.  They got shutout by the Mayhem and have had close games against the despairing Outlaws twice this season.  It might be a week over week meta issue, but in my opinion the Fuel are the more consistent, and more confident team right now, even if Orisa being banned means they can’t play on their preferred Double Shield.  Without Double Shield, the Fuel will likely go with a Dive composition, which they have shown they are rather good at.  The Fuel are itching for an impressive win, having taken both the Shock and the Fusion to the brink, and this is the match I think they finally break through.


Fusion (11-1) vs Titans (2-4) – 5PM EST

Not much to say here, this should be a massacre.  The Titans are still getting their feet wet while the Fusion have proven themselves to be the most dominate team in the West.  The only way this is not a sweep is if the Fusion elect to start some of their bench talent to get them some play time.  If they come out with their starters I am taking them to cover -2.5 for a +110 payday.

Defiant (4-7) vs Valiant (4-6) – 7PM EST

From our Picks of the week: Defiant ML for +175 is a perfect cap off to the weekend.  Everyone is so hot on the Valiant because they won 2 games in a row that they forget that one of those was to the wet paper bag of the Uprising and the other was a reverse sweep against an overrated Reign, who should have locked the match up multiple times but made stupid mistakes, practically gifting them the win.  I am not saying the Valiant are bad, but people need to relax.  Before this 2 match win streak they got shut out by the Shock and lost to mid table teams in the Fuel and Gladiators.  They are playing better as of late but to put them as -245 favorites is absurd.  The Defiant on the other hand just experienced a renaissance.  Kruise is back, and my goodness was his leadership, shot calling and confidence missed.  They looked like an entirely different team with him in against the Shock last week, nearly taking it to a map 5.  While they have only beaten the 2 worst team in the league for 3 of their 4 wins, peoples forget that they started of the season by beating the Eternal convincingly (with Kruise).  I think this one goes to a map 5, but I think it is time for the Defiant to get back to their true potential.


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