DreamHack Masters – May 25, 2020

     Monday kicks off the start of new group play in both the North American region and European region. European group C features heavyweights such as FaZe, Fnatic, Spirit and Godsent. North American group B should shape out to be more competitive than group A. They feature 100 Thieves, Evil Geniuses, Cloud 9 and Road to Rio winner, Gen.G. Last week was a good week, but was ruined by my plays Sunday. I’ll be considering that mess unofficial because I didn’t do a preview for the picks. I enjoyed the nice weather on Saturday, a little too much, but tweeted picks off the top of my head before going to bed. I apologize to anybody who tailed. In the future I won’t make plays without going through my process, which at this point, includes writing previews. Officially though, we finished the week 10-7 for +2.05 units. I’ll be looking to add to that this week.

Fnatic (-240) vs Spirit (+190) – DreamHack EU – 8:00am EST

     Spirit And Fnatic come in to DreamHack play in opposite form. Spirit won the CIS region of Road to Rio without dropping a single series. Fnatic played in the European region, but failed to make playoffs after going 3-5 in group play. Fnatic didn’t look themself after winning ESL Pro League the event prior. I’m curious to see if they’ll be able to find form, especially after watching Mousesports continue to struggle. This will be the first time Spirit And Fnatic meet for an official match.

     Spirit will get things started with the first ban. They’ll use that on Vertigo. This helps Fnatic as Vertigo is their first ban most of the time. Fnatic will most likely use their first ban on Train. Spirit should use their first pick on Dust2. They’ve lost their last couple matches on Dust2, but have a 13-5 record for the rest of the past few months. Fnatic is also on a 5 game losing streak on Dust2. Fnatic will most likely pick Inferno as their map pick. Inferno is certainly Fnatics most comfortable map. They didn’t get consistent wins there at Rio, but if they are to find their form it will have to start on Inferno. I expect Spirit to use their second ban on Mirage. This will allow Fnatic to pick between Overpass and Nuke based on where they see their biggest advantage. Each team is solid on both maps though. 

     I’ll be betting this match in a couple of different ways. My first and most confident play will be on the over. I think that Spirit has to be the favorite for Dust2 and I expect Fnatic to be extremely prepared to win Inferno. I’ll also be making a smaller play on Spirit at plus money. If you faded Mousesports in all of their DreamHack group play matches you’d be a very happy bettor. Mouse And Fnatic both had similar form in Rio after making the Championship at Pro League. I don’t think Fnatic deserves to be such a heavy favorite against Spirit based on current form. 

Miner’s Money Picks: Total maps o2.5 (+115) & Spirit (+190) *0.8u*

FaZe (-275) vs Godsent (+215) – DreamHack EU – 11:30am EST

     We got FaZe taking on Godsent in what is a perfect match for these two teams. They each come in to this match featuring a new face. FaZe lost Olofmeister and has yet to announce his replacement, but word on the street is that it will be a stand in. Godsent parted ways with Makelelie to make room for Farlig after Rio. I think Farlig will be a great addition for Godsent as Farlig was dominant with Copenhagen throughout Road to Rio play. Neither of these teams should be thrilled with how Road to Rio turned out for them. Godsent got bumped from the first round of the playoffs. FaZe went undefeated in group play, but ended up placing third after losing to Astralis and then G2 in the lower bracket.

     These two teams met during group play at Rio and I expect the map pool to shape up similarly here. Godsent will start by banning FaZe’s best map, Mirage. FaZe will follow this up by banning Vertigo. Godsent will usually choose Overpass as their first pick, but they got beat handedly the last time these teams met there. I wouldn’t be surprised to see them chose Nuke and force FaZe to play a technical map with a stand in. FaZe would pick either Dust2 or Nuke as their map pick without Mirage being an option. I would expect to see Dust2 from them with the stand in. Godsent should use their second ban on Inferno unless Farlig (Inferno god) has taught them how to play the map over the course of the last week. FaZe will then have to pick between Train or Overpass/Nuke. I expect FaZe to pick Train.

     This is a tough one. I expect the new additions for each team to play a huge roll in the outcome of this match. If FaZe really is just using a stand in, then I would have to give Godsent the edge in terms of the teams changing. I have very high expectations for Farlig. I think that the over makes sense as this should be a competitive match across all maps. I’ll be waiting to see the FaZe roster and map pool before making that play. Be sure to check my twitter @MoneyMiner_ before match starts to see if I lock in the over. As for right now, I’ll be making an investment on Godsent money line. I think this line is far too high for a game with so many question marks, especially because I expect Godsent to be better than the last time we saw them. The same can’t be said with certainty about FaZe. If the FaZe stand in is lackluster, then there may be a pregame hedge opportunity if you seek it. *UPDATE: FaZe will be playing the 16 year old Bymas. I’ll be opting to play the over (+130) as well as the Godsent money line, although I got a line worse than last nights.

Miner’s Money Pick: Total Maps o2.5 (+130) & Godsent (+210) *0.75u*

Evil Geniuses (-270) vs Cloud9 (+210) – DreamHack NA – 3:00pm EST

     It’s surprising for my favorite match of the day to be in the North American region, but that’s what we’re getting today! Cloud9 will be taking on Evil Geniuses for the second time in about a month. These teams met during Road to Rio group play with Cloud9 winning that match 2-1. Evil Geniuses forced overtime on the Cloud9 map pick, Dust, but were unable to secure the win. EG dominated Nuke 16-8 before losing the tie breaker, Overpass, 16-9. This match was a turning point for each team. Cloud9 was able to string together some wins before beating Liquid to place 3rd at Rio. EG went on to miss playoffs with a 2-3 record in group play. They were only able to beat Orgless and Triumph.

     Cloud9 will get things started by banning Mirage. EG will then use their first ban on Overpass. They opted to use their ban on Train last time and that came back to haunt them on the tie breaker. I don’t expect them to make that mistake twice. Cloud9 will most likely chose Dust2 again. Cloud9 is 5-2 there since March while EG is just 3-6. EG will certainly pick Nuke again. They played strong there against Cloud9 last time around. I hope to see Cloud9 use their second ban on Vertigo which will force EG to decide between Train or Inferno. I would make Cloud9 a favorite on both of those maps.

     I know I may be starting to sound like a broken record, but I favor the under dog and the over again in this one. Cloud9 is a great team to back as a dog because they have such a high ceiling, but they also have a low enough floor to create value. I loved what I saw from them at Rio and expect them to win this match outright if they show up in similar form. Regardless of who wins, I expect this match to go the distance. Cloud9 has plenty of map advantages to chose from for their pick. EG should be able to best Cloud9 on Nuke again. It’s also worth mentioning that Cloud9 went to the third map in 7 of their 8 Road to Rio matches. EG went the distance on all 3 of their Rio loses. Neither of these teams will give up and I don’t expect either to get shut out. If I have my way, it’s going to be an extremely long day of Counter Strike tomorrow. Let’s end the day with a free roll after the first map.

Miner’s Money Pick: Cloud9 (+210) & Total maps o2.5 (+100)

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