Summit6 Playoffs – June 29

     The first day of Summit6 playoffs start on Monday with four matches in the European region. Since it’s the playoffs, I’ll be providing at least one play for every match. There is also going to be placement matches going on for teams that failed to make playoffs. Some of those matches may find themself in the previews, but it’s not guaranteed I cover them all. I may also tweet some live spots for matches I don’t cover in the blog, so be sure to follow my twitter account (twitter.com/MoneyMiner_) to see those plays. Feel free to DM me question as well. We finished Summit6 group play with a .500 record, but managed to profit 1.1 units. We’ll be looking to improve with this playoff slate offering plenty of action.

 

OG (-280) vs North (+210) – 9:00am

     We open up the day with a match up between North and OG. I am a little bit surprised to see both of these teams in the playoffs. North had been struggling to find wins prior to the event, but beat Movistar Riders twice during group play to earn their spot. OG came out of the most competitive group in the European Region. They were able to find wins against Heretics and BiG, managing to avoid FaZe completely. OG had been struggling before this event as well, suffering from a rift between teammates. I’ll be curious to see if that’s patched up moving forward.

     My play on this match comes in the form of the over. Each of the teams will use their first ban on their opponents regular first pick. North will then default to their secondary pick of Overpass. OG is 0-4 on Overpass against top 30 teams in the last three months. OG will then use their map pick on Inferno. North is a gross 4-8 on Inferno during the last three months, but three of those wins were against Movistar Riders. I expect them to struggle there against OG. I think the over at +115 offers a ton of value in this matchup. I may play a live bet on this match depending on the third map choice, so be sure to keep an eye on my twitter.

Miner’s Money Pick: o2.5 maps (+115) 

 

Fnatic (-130) vs Ninjas in Pyjamas (+100) – 12:00pm EST

     On the opening day of playoffs we have the battles of the two most notorious Swedish counter strike organizations. NiP earned a day off on Sunday by claiming the one seed in their group, finding wins against Heroic and x6stence. They’ll be taking on Fnatic, who found themself in the quarter finals after getting a win over G2 to earn the two seed in their group. Each of these teams will trying to avoid the lower bracket, so we should see two motivated squads coming into Mondays match.

     Fnatic will have the opening move and ban Vertigo. NiP will most likely continue the trend of using their first ban on Nuke, as they have recently added Dust2 to their map pool. Fnatic should use their first map pick on Train or Inferno, but neither map will provide too much of an advantage. NiP will most likely pick Overpass, as they’ve had convincing wins in their last three matches. Overpass is a comfortable map for Fnatic, so there’s a chance NiP audible picks Mirage. Fnatic is just 3-6 on Mirage since the start of Road to Rio. I have this hunch that NiP is going to force Dust2 as the third map as well. They’ve been preparing Dust2 and have had strong outings against Vitality and Heroic. 

      There is a lot of different ways this map pool could end up, but I think a majority of the outcomes favor NiP. Since NiP is starting to incorporate Dust2 into their map pool, they have the ability to ban a map to hurt Fnatic, instead of protecting themself. Especially because they may not be scared of Fnatic on Nuke who is 1-7 since the end of Road to Rio. NiP is also very well versed for both of Fnatic’s most often first picks.

     These two teams met back in May during Road to Rio, with NiP winning that meeting 2-1. Since that meeting, NiP has improved with the addition of Hampus who seems to be bringing a new element to NiP as a fragging IGL. Fnatic on the other hand, is roughly in the same form. The team shows flashes of their true potential, but struggles to sustain that success across a whole event. Their match Sunday against G2 compared to that from when they played them just four days prior highlights their inconsistency. NiP thrives in competitive, drawn out games of Counter Strike, and I think that is just what this match up will be. I also think Fnatic is getting a little too much respect in the market due to their win over G2, who hasn’t been the most consistent team either. I’ll take the value that win creates for NiP all day!

Miner’s Money Pick: Ninjas in Pyjamas (+100) *2.0u*

 

Vitality (-300) vs Heroic (+220) – 12:00pm EST

     Vitality and Heroic will be tipping off at the same time as the NiP/Fnatic match. Vitality finds themself in the quarter finals after getting group play wins against North and Fate (lol). Both of those matches were a blowout. Heroic earned a two seed by beating Ence twice, while losing to NiP in between. This will be the second time Heroic and Vitality meet for a best of three since the start of June. Their last meeting came during DreamHack playoffs, where Vitality found a 2-1 win as a -190 favorite. I don’t think that win was convincing enough to move their line to -300, especially when looking at the map pool. 

     Heroic should use their map pick on Nuke, where they are 10-1 in the past three months. I think they’ll find a win there considering Vitality is just 8-8 against top 30 teams in the same time frame. Heroic will also have a chance of taking Vitality’s map pick which should come as either Dust2 or Vertigo. Heroic will be able to force the tie breaker to be Inferno or Mirage. I would certainly give Heroic better than the 33% chance that the odds imply. I think Vitality’s recent results caused the line to open up a little too high, so my move will be on Heroic to steal the series.

Miner’s Money Pick: Heroic (+220)

 

BiG (-400) vs Godsent (+300) – 3:00pm

     I’m going to keep this one short. I need to start by saying that I don’t understand this line at all. BiG is one of the hottest teams out, but Godsent is much improved since the addition of Farlig. I think the market is completely wrong on Godsent and I’ll be looking to abuse that moving forward, but not today. My play for this is going to be on BiG to win exactly 2-1 at +250. I think there is a ton of value on this line. BiG will chose Inferno and dominate it, but Godsent will pick Overpass. BiG has at least 10 maps played on every map other than their ban and Overpass. They’re 3-0 on Overpass, but none of their wins were against quality teams and they were all close matches. Godsent should be able to find a win there against them. The final map will most likely end up being Dust2 or Nuke, which are BiGs most successful maps.

Miner’s Money Pick: BiG win 2-1 (+250)

Join the Discussion

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Back to top