Summit6 Playoffs – July 2

     The European Region lower bracket semi-finals for Summit6 begin on Thursday with a matchup between Heroic And Fnatic. That match will be followed up by Godsent and OG before the start of a couple placement matches. The final playoff match of the day will be in the North American region. The NA lower bracket will start with a matchup between 100 Thieves and Gen.G. We had a bounce back day on Wednesday. We started the day with a 3 unit (fat boy!) parlay of Vitality and BiG money line (+135). That cashed easy as both teams won 2-0. We also got on BiG -2.5 rounds (-120) on Nuke for another two units. We finished the playoffs with a loss on the EG/Gen.G over as well as Gen.G money line. Gen.G choked a 3v1 away on the 30th round to force OT on their map choice. With out that choke we should have at least split bets as they had a much stringer finish to Train. We played a bonus parlay in the decider matches cashing out on G2/FaZe ML’s for a unit. All in all we finished the day +5.05 units, and 4.05 of the units came from playoffs.

Summit6 Playoffs: 4-5 (+0.3u)

Summit6 Group: 6-6 (+1.1u)

Fnatic (-160) vs Heroic (+130) – 9:00am EST

     Heroic and Fnatic will open up the lower bracket semi finals in the European region. Fnatic found themself in the lower bracket after losing to BiG in the upper  bracket semi finals. Heroic landed in the lower bracket quarter finals after suffering an opening game loss to Vitality. They went on to beat North to make the lower bracket semi’s against Fnatic. These teams met just a little over a week ago during the Summit6 qualifiers. Heroic won that meeting by a 2-0 scoreline after taking Train in overtime, and then winning 16-10 on Nuke. We should see a closely contested battle during this rematch.

     Heroic will begin shaping the map pool by using their first ban on Overpass. Fnatic will follow that up with their first ban of Vertigo. Heroic should use their first map pick on Nuke. This offers them a huge advantage as Fnatic is just 1-8 on Nuke since the conclusion of Road to Rio. Heroic is 10-1 on Nuke during that same time span. I would expect Fnatic to pick Train again, but since they lost to Heroic there a week ago, they may pick Inferno. Heroic should be competitive on either map choice. Heroic will use their second ban on either Train/Inferno depending on the Fnatic pick. This will force Fnatic to chose between Dust2 or Mirage for the tie breaking map.

     Fnatic has had a huge improvement in play since the conclusion of DreamHack. They’ve been winning the matches they should and have stayed competitive during their losses, but this is a horrible match up for them. Heroic should easily take Nuke, as its their best map and Fnatic’s worst. I think Fnatic takes their own map pick this time around, but it wont be easy considering Train and Inferno are comfortable for Heroic. I would have to give Fnatic a better chance on Inferno, so if that is Fnatic’s map choice i’ll be making a play on the over. Until I see the maps, my only play will be on Heroic money line. Theres a ton of value at the current number. Heroic will have a huge edge on their map pick and either of the potential tie breaking maps. Fnatic is just 3-6 on Dust2 and 5-8 on Mirage over the past three months. On the other hand, Heroic is 8-7 on Dust2 and 9-4 on Mirage. Let’s get the morning started by cashing an underdog. I also think Fnatic takes some steam, so waiting for this Heroic line to inflate may be worth it!

Miner’s Money Pick: Heroic (+130)

Godsent (-115) vs OG (-115) – 12:00pm EST

     Godsent and OG have both been pleasant surprises during the Summit6 event. OG opened up play with a win against North, before moving on to lose to Vitality in the upper bracket semi finals. They now take on Godsent in the lower bracket semi finals. Godsent was bounced to the lower bracket after an opening round loss to BiG. Their first lower bracket match was against NiP and they were able to find a 2-0 upset as a +200 under dog. Godsent has been slept on for a while now, so I think that match against NiP will help people realize they are legit.  Godsent was in need of an AWPer and the addition of Farlig has provided them with a top talent AWP. I expect them to continue to play strong throughout Summit as they attempt to qualify for the major.

     Since OG is coming from the upper bracket, Godsent should have the first move in shaping the map pool. They will use their first ban on Mirage and OG will use theirs on Vertigo. I would expect Godsent to use their map pick on Overpass. Godsent is 7-3 on Overpass during the past three months. In that same time span, OG is just 2-6 with their only wins coming against teams outside of the top 30. OG should use their map pick on Inferno. OG is on a six map win streak on Inferno, while Godsent is just 1-11 over the past three months. Godsent will use their second ban on Dust2 in order to force OG to pick between Train or Nuke for the tie breaking map.

     The map pool in this match shapes up perfectly for a play on the over. Each team gets to use a map they often pick as their map choice and their opponent happens to struggle on that map. We should see each team win their pick, but I wouldn’t expect to see blow outs. OG looked better on Overpass against Vitality and Godsent has Farlig who can cause problems on Inferno. The odds (-105) suggest this match only goes over 51% of the time which provides us with a huge edge. I’ll also be backing Godsent as I still don’t think they’re getting enough respect in the market. Godsent will continue to improve with their new roster every match they play, and I think we only saw a glimpse of what they’re capable of against NiP. Farlig should prove to be the difference maker in this match. OG may also still be having some in house issues, so I think there’s plenty of value on Godsent at evenly priced odds.

Miner’s Money Picks: Godsent (-115) *1.15u* & o2.5 maps (-105) *2.1u*   

100 Thieves (-150) vs Gen.G (+120) – 6:00pm EST

      I got my play in last night on 100 Thieves money line at the price of -150, which I felt was a steal. Gen.G has looked extremely unreliable and seems to be trending in the wrong direction. They had a couple of good halves against Evil Geniuses, but failed to put together a complete game of Counter Strike. At the time of this update (12:45pm EST), 100 Thieves have steamed all the way to -200. I wouldn’t make the money line play at this price, so my suggestion would be to play -1.5 at +180. You could also wait and attempt to get a live play on 100T money line if they fall behind early on the first map. The money line for the 100T map pick, which should be Vertigo, is also a strong play.


Miner’s Money Pick: 100 Thieves (-150) *1.5u*

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