Summit6 – June 26, 2020

    Thursday is a day full of elimination games for Summit6. I love how they are running their group play. First day winning teams move on to play the other winning team in their group. The winner of that qualifies for playoffs, while the loser plays the winner of the elimination games. There is only two playoff spots per group, so those matchups will be for the final spot in each group. We started hot with our first day of official picks. We hit on Heroic (+100) in the morning against Ence. We followed that up with a two unit winner on BiG against FaZe. At the same time we cashed BiG tickets, we suffered our only loss in Heretics to OG. We finished the day strong, cashing a +200 play on Cloud9 -1.5 against Gen.G. All in all, we finished 3-1 and profited 3 units. We’ll be looking to carry that momentum in to another packed slate.

Summit6 Record: 3-1 (+3.0u)

 

Fnatic (-135) vs Mousesports (+105) – 9:00am EST

      The first game of the day gives us a battle between two big name teams who have extremely underperformed as of late. Fnatic finds themself in the #6 spot for global rankings, while Mouse has fallen all the way to #12. Just two months ago these teams faced off in a best of five series for the grand final of ESL Pro League, but a lot has changed since then. Mouse is just 5-9 in best of three series since the conclusion of ESL Pro League. Fnatic is 9-13 in the same span. Both of these teams are power houses on LAN, and both of them having an under .500 win percent highlights their struggles online. The loser of this match will be eliminated from Summit, so I expect a max effort from each squad. Neither team’s ranking can afford being bounced from an RMR tournament this early. 

       Fnatic will use their first ban on Vertigo, while Mouse will use theirs on Overpass. This ban favors Mouse. Mouse is on a four map losing streak on Vertigo, while Mouse’s ban, Overpass, is Fnatic’s best map since their slump. Fnatic will use their first pick on Inferno. Mouse is just 1-9 on Inferno over the past three months. Mouse will use their first pick on Nuke, as Fnatic is on a seven map losing streak on Nuke. I imagine we see Dust2 or Train as the final map. Mouse would have a slight edge on Dust2 and I would say the teams will be evenly matched on Train.

     My play for this game will be on the over. I see both of these teams taking their map pick with ease, as their opponent struggles on their pick. There is also a ton of value on the current line at +105. If I had to pick a side before the match, I would have to side with Mouse, considering they are the plus money side. I don’t feel comfortable backing either of these teams as a favorite. I will be staying away from both sides, at least until we see the map pick. If the third map is Dust2 instead of Train, there would be some value on Mouse. Other than that, I’ll just be on the over, which I think is a strong play.

Miner’s Money Pick: o2.5 maps (+105) 

 

Movistar Riders (-125) vs Fate (-105) – 9:00am EST

     I don’t have too much of a preview for this match, but I was taken back by the line, so it’s making my write up. Both of these teams seem to be fighting above their weight class right now. Fate qualified for this tournament because they were blessed by the seeding in the qualifier. They beat Dignitas in the first round, before beating PACT to qualify. Neither of those games should carry too much weight. In their first Summit match they were dominated by Vitality. Movistar proved they can hang with the big dogs during Road to Rio, but have been on a skid ever since finishing 6th place. With that being said, I still think they’re a class above Fate. This is also an elimination match, so I expect each team to be focused on getting a win. If Movistar can’t find the win here, they most likely won’t qualify for the upcoming major. That motivational edge is enough for me to back them, especially at such a cheap price. The price definitely shows some recency bias, but I think Movistar figure it out for such an important game.

Miner’s Money Pick: Movistar Riders (-125)

 

FaZe (-400) vs Heretics (+300) – 12:00pm EST

     This is my reach of the day. I won’t be playing either for a full unit, but I’ll be backing Heretics money line with the over as well. Heretics burnt me against OG, and certainly aren’t the most talented team, but I’m not impressed with FaZe lately either. They’ve lost three straight series without picking up a map. Bymas is finally proving to be the liability I have been saying he is. That reason solely isn’t enough to back Heretics, but the map pool should provide them with comfortable maps.

      Heretics will use their ban on Train, while FaZe uses their ban on Vertigo. This will allow Heretics to pick their favorite map, Nuke. Nuke has been tough for FaZe, as they’re on a 3 map skid with a 4-6 record since Road to Rio. I think Heretics will be able to secure their win on Nuke. FaZe will most likely pick Mirage. Mirage hasn’t been easy for Heretics, as they lost 16-3 there on Thursday against OG. FaZe is much better on Mirage than OG, so things wont be any easier for Heretics. The final map will be either Dust2 or Inferno. Heretics is comfortable on both maps, but should be able to force FaZe on to Inferno to give them their best chance. FaZe has looked extremely vulnerable on Inferno since the addition of Bymas, and I would love having Heretics at +300 if it all comes down to that map. Hopefully Heretics get first pick and secure Nuke right away, so we are free rolling both plays.

Miner’s Money Pick: Heretics (+300) & o2.5 maps (+150) *0.5u each*

 

Furia (-150) vs MiBR (+120) – 3:00pm EST

     My final play of the day comes in on the North American matchup between the two best Brazilian squads in Counter Strike. This will be the sixth best of three meeting between these two teams since the end of March. Furia currently leads the meetings with four series wins to MiBR’s one. MiBR won the most recent meeting, which is creating a ton of value for Friday’s match. Prior to the MiBR win, MiBR had only won one map compared to the eight of Furia. Furia has dominated this match up, so I think the price of -150 is extremely fair. I don’t know if they will win in 2-0 fashion, but I expect them to come out victorious, especially considering its an elimination game. MiBR has also looked off since losing to Evil Geniuses in the final of Blast Premiere. They suffered a loss to Chaos and got 2-0’d by Liquid in their last match. *UPDATE* Furia has moved all the way to -180, if you missed the -150 number, I would instead play -1.5 at +190.

Miner’s Money Pick: Furia (-150) *1.5u*

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