Round One of DreamHack Playoffs – June 8, 2020

      Round one of the DreamHack Masters Playoff kicks off Monday morning with three games from the European region. We have Fnatic taking on Complexity to start the day. The next match features Spirit going against Mad Lions. The final game is between Vitality and Heroic, which starts around 3:30pm (EST). We finished up DreamHack group play with a 23-21 record, profiting 3.02 units. Let’s find the same success in playoffs!

Fnatic (-140) vs Complexity (+110) – 8:00am EST

      Fnatic and Complexity come in to this match after having opposite group play results. Fnatic finished the group 1-2, only beating Godsent, who finished 0-3. Complexity finished 2-1 in their group, while their only loss came against Big, who finished 3-0. Complexity has been pumping out Home Sweet Home Cup matches every day. They’ve played an unreal amount of Counter Strike over the course of the last month and seem to be playing great as a team. Fnatic has been having some trouble, but recently held a boot camp leading to better results at Blast Premiere.

     Fnatic is the lower seeded team, so they will start shaping the map pool. They should use Overpass for their first ban, and Complexity will ban Vertigo. I expect Fnatic to pick Inferno, as they did just days ago against Vitality. Complexity will most likely pick Mirage. They’ve played Mirage 25 times in the last three months and have sustained a win percentage of 65% during that time. Fnatic has struggled on Mirage, losing their last five matches there. I would expect Fnatic to use their second ban on Dust2. This will leave Complexity with the option of picking Nuke or Train for the tie breaker. They would certainly go with Nuke.

     I’m going to be backing Complexity in this one. They’ve been in much better form than Fnatic since the start of DreamHack a few weeks ago. As I said, Complexity seems to be vibing as a squad, while there still seems to be issues with Fnatic. The map pool also strongly favors Complexity. Inferno is a good map for Fnatic, but they’ve lost four of their last five matches there. Complexity is 4-0 on Inferno in their last four, including wins against Mouse and Big. Complexity also has a huge advantage on Mirage. They’re 16-9 on Mirage in the last three months compared to Fnatic who is just 4-9 in the same time span. Fnatic is also just 2-8 in their most recent 10 Mirage maps. Complexity should also be favored on the tie breaker of Nuke. It’s a map Complexity is extremely comfortable on as they’re a 9-1 on their last 10 maps on Nuke. Fnatic is just 5-5 in their last 10, but 1-4 in their most recent 5 matches. I think these odds should be flipped, so I’m thrilled to back Complexity as a short dog.

Miner’s Money Pick: Complexity (+110)

Mad Lions (-145) vs Spirit (+115) – 11:00am EST

     I think this will be the most competitive match of the day. We have 15th ranked, Spirit, taking on 13th ranked, Mad Lions. The Mad Lions looked shaky to start DreamHack play, finishing the group with a 1-2 record. Their only win came against Mousesports. They seemed to turn things around at Blast Premiere with a 3-0-1 record during group play, but got smoked by Ence in their first playoff match. The group play success may have came from their lack of competition. They beat up on Fnatic, VP and Dignitas before tying Mousesports. Spirit looked like the best team in their group at DreamHack. Unfortunately for them, Mir lost power during the second map against Faze. They went on to lose that match with a fill in, although they looked like the better team at full strength.

     Mad Lions will get things started by banning Overpass. Spirit will use Vertigo for their first ban. Mad Lions use their first pick on Mirage most often. Spirit usually use their first pick on Dust2, but had used either Train or Nuke for all of their DreamHack group play matches. I would think they either pick Dust2/Train in order to play Nuke as the third map. Mad Lions will most likely use their second ban on Dust2 if possible. This will allow Spirit to chose between Nuke or Inferno for the last map.

     Regardless of the order, I expect the map pool to be Mirage/Dust2, Train and Nuke as the tie breaker. I think each team can be competitive on every potential map, but I have to give the edge to Spirit considering their form. Mad Lions are just 1-3 in best of three series since winning Flashpoint in April. Their only win came against a reeling Mousesports. Spirit on the other hand, has looked great. Two weeks ago Spirit had a form rating of 107 compared to Mad Lions 98. Now, Spirit sits at a rating of 187, while Mad Lions have declined to a 95. Spirit also carries an edge on all potential tie breaking maps. In my opinion, Spirit was the most impressive team during Dreamhack group play. They should also be hungry after missing out on the one seed due to technical issues. I’ll be backing them as a short dog against a Mad Lions team who hasn’t been overly impressive.

Miner’s Money Pick: Spirit (+115) 

Vitality (-190) vs Heroic (+150) – 3:30pm EST

      Heroic finished DreamHack group play with a 1-2 record. They lost to G2 and Astralis, but managed to beat North 2-0. They played in the Home Sweet Home Cup 5/6 while waiting for DreamHack Playoffs to start. They went an impressive 9-1 in those events, although the skill level is lower than that of DreamHack. Vitality has been on fire lately, but their ability to close out matches scares me. They finished DreamHack group play with a 2-1 record, but should have been 3-0 if they didn’t crumble against NaVi. They had the best round differential during group play at +37.

     Heroic should start things out by banning Overpass. Vitality will follow this by banning Train. I expect Heroic to use their first pick on Nuke. They are 8-1 on Nuke in the past three months. Nuke is a comfortable map for Vitality, but they suffered a 16-7 loss to NiP there on Sunday.  I would like to see Vitality chose Vertigo for their first pick instead of Dust2. They are a dominant 6-0 on Vertigo in the last three months. They’ve also beaten some of the better Vertigo teams in NiP and G2. Heroic should use their second ban on Mirage, which will allow Vitality to pick between Inferno or Dust2. There’s a chance Vitality pick Dust2 first and hope to use Vertigo as a decider.

     I’ve been learning not to fade Vitality in their current form. During Blast Premiere it was easy to see how committed Vitality is to improving right now. Their players seem to be all in and were often seen on camera celebrating in their chairs after each round. They are a team that is extremely hungry and should know that the top 10 is currently wide open. With that being said, they still have some issues closing out maps. I think this map pool is pretty even for both teams, so don’t be surprised if Vitality drop a map. My play is on the Vitality money line to win about a half unit, but will look to get a full unit on them live at a price closer to even money. This Heroic lineup is still fairly new (Teses & Niko), so I think Vitality should be able to get another win today. I’m also going to throw another half unit on the over at plus money. This play stems mostly from Vitality’s inability to close out maps mixed with a competitive map pool. Heroic has also had a lot of time to prepare for Vitality.

Miner’s Money Pick: Vitality (-190) & o2.5 maps (+110) 

Playoff Parlay Special: This won’t be an every day thing, but I’ll be trying to provide a parlay every now and then when I see value. Some days we’ll be sprinkling high risk, high reward parlays, while other days we’ll put a full unit on a less risky play. Monday’s parlay will be a two teamer that has the odds of -115. We’ll be playing the parlay to win a unit.

Parlay (-115): Complexity +1.5 & Spirit +1.5 – I think there is value on each teams money line, but I also don’t see either of these teams losing in 2-0 fashion.

**Be sure to follow my twitter (twitter.com/MoneyMiner_) in order to see if/when I make my live play on Vitality.

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