OWL Week 24 Day 3 – Betting Picks and Analysis

Hero Bans: Widowmaker, Mei, Orisa and Ana

 

Paris Eternal (13-6) vs Toronto Defiant (6-10)

Sunday 7/19 at 3:00 PM EST

 

As I mentioned yesterday, the Eternal are coming off an impressive Summer Showdown victory, and after their 3-0 win against the Titans on Friday, have won 6 straight and 10 of their last 12 making them the hottest team in the league right now.  Even with this hero Ban week, Genji is still seeing a lot of play time and Sparkle continues to look like the best Genji in the league.  The Defiant have shown signs of life recently, managing to make it to the Semifinals by beating both the Valiant and the Reign before losing to the Fusion, as Agilities looked like a beast on the Genji.  Seeing as Genji is still the go to damage hero this week, I think this could turn into a decently competitive match despite the Eternal being heavy favorites at -1600.  While I don’t think there is any chance the defiant manage to win this one, I think there is a real chance they steal a map here.  And since the line moved to -2.5, there is some real value here.

Bet: Toronto Defiant +2.5 (-125)

 

 

Atlanta Reign (7-6) vs Florida Mayhem (11-5)

Sunday 7/19 at 5:00 PM EST

The big news here is the Reign’s damage player babybay has officially retired, meaning we will likely see Erster and Edison in the Damage roles.  While at first glance this seems like bad news for the Reign as babybay was a solid player, but I would argue that Erster and Edison is a better and more consistent duo, and this retirement might actually help the Reign.  Historically they have consistently beat the lower tier teams but have yet to break through and find a quality win, despite each of their 7 wins have been 3-0 sweeps.  The Mayhem have been looking like one of the best teams in NA having won 9 of their last 12, however, with Genji being more reliable than tracer the last few weeks, they have only won 2 in their last 5.  Even with this minor slump I am confident the Mayhem will bounce back, and they will be eager to get back to winning ways after getting knocked out of the Summer Showdown by the Outlaws.  Dive seems to be the name of the game this week and Mayhem have a much better Dive than Reign.  Taking the Spread to get the most out of this one.

Bet: Florida Mayhem -1.5 (-145)

 

Boston Uprising (2-13) vs LA Valiant (8-7)

Sunday 7/19 at 7:00 PM EST

 

In esports, confidence is key, and the Valiant are lacking it.  After looking like a top team in NA winning 7 out of 8 with the only loss being against the Shock, the Valiant crashed back down to earth with 2 decisive losses to the Eternal and Defiant.  The new patch appears to have hurt their style dramatically, and the team looks lost and longing for confidence.  While I believe they will improve from this slump, I don’t see them getting back to the same level they were last month, especially with Genji still being the best Damage hero right now.  The Uprising have only managed 2 wins this season and have lost 5 straight, however they have shown improvement despite not finding many wins, with a win against the Gladiators and a pair of close matches against the Eternal.  With Genji being meta they have looked dreadful though, losing to both the Justice and the Titans the last few weeks.  I think both teams are going to struggle in this current patch and Hero ban, however I think there is a solid chance the Uprising steal a map, considering the Valiant are reeling right now and have not found an identity in this meta.

Bet: Boston Uprising +2.5 (-150)

 

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