OWL Week 24 Day 1 – Betting Picks and Analysis

Hero Bans: Widowmaker, Mei, Orisa and Ana

 

Vancouver Titans (4-8) vs Paris Eternal (12-6)

Friday 7/17 at 3:00 PM EST

Coming off an impressive Summer Showdown victory, the Eternal have won 5 straight and 9 of their last 11 making them easily the hottest team in the league right now.  They look unstoppable in the current patch with Sparkle on the Genji being a highlight reel every map.  It sounds like nerfs are on the horizon for Genji so we will see if they can maintain this momentum, but for this week, their main concern will be the Hero bans.  With Orisa and Ana out, I question how viable Genji will be without a Nano boost or halts to enable him.  While Paris will almost undoubtedly secure the win here as -1800 favorites, it is worth noting that in their 21 matches this season, they only won in a 3-0 shut out twice and have dropped at least one map in their last 9 matches.  Add that to the fact that everyone is hopping on the Eternal bandwagon now makes me think that this is a great chance to find value betting against them.  While the Titans have struggled since their roster overhaul, they have showed improvement every week and are starting to find their rhythm with recent wins against the Fuel and Uprising while also taking a Map off of Paris during the Summer Showdown.  If the Titans can take a map with no Hero pools, where the meta is perfect for the Eternal, I am confident they can take one in this Ban meta.

Bet: Vancouver Titans +2.5 (-130)

 

 

Houston Outlaws (6-11) vs Dallas Fuel (5-8)

Friday 7/17 at 5:00 PM EST

The battle for Texas is back, and the Outlaws will be desperate to get revenge after losing to the Fuel the last two times out.  The Fuel have been extremely volatile the last few weeks, centering around the absence of Decay in the line up in the matches leading up to the Summer Showdown.  While OmniGod played well, he was not able to fill the huge shoes of Decay, and it showed just how much this team leans on him to clutch out wins.  While Decay did return for the Summer Showdown, and Doha looked solid on the Genji they were no match for the Eternal in round one and have only won 2 of their last 8, so I still question if this team can put up a consistent performance. For this match up I think the Bans hurt both teams equally. Orisa out means Hydration for the Outlaws will have to prove that he is a solid main tank on other heroes, but no Widow means that Decay can’t carry them like he did last time out.  The Outlaws may have found their stride the last month or so, even though their 3-4 record in their last 7 seems rough, because they have played a brutal schedule in that time frame, facing the Fusion and Mayhem twice.  I think Outlaws have the momentum here while the Fuel are sputtering.  Time for the Outlaws to claim back Texas.

Bet: Houston Outlaws ML (-130)

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