OWL Week 21 Day 2 – Betting Picks and Analysis

No Hero Bans

Dragons (17-2) vs Spark (7-9)

Sunday 6/28 at 4:00 AM EST

Dragons cover -1.5 (-200) The Spark looked absolutely dreadful today, and while I think this was more of a blip than a trend, the Dragons are still a far superior team right now. The Spark have simply failed to perform when there are no hero bans.  The Dragons should be able to take care of business easily, and I would take a -2.5 spread if it was offered.

Hunters (4-13) vs Dynasty (6-7)

Sunday 6/28 at 6:00 AM EST

Avoid.  When the two most inconsistent teams in the world right now meet, you either avoid, or bet on the underdog.  I am opting to avoid on this one as even as +335 underdogs, I still don’t think that is enough to bet on the Hunters, and I have no confidence on if this will be a blow out or a close match.  Not worth the risk here.

Excelsior (12-4) vs Charge (12-6)

Sunday 6/28 at 8:00 AM EST

Excelsior ML -130.  While the NYXL did not look great with no hero bans during May Melee, the addition of the best Genji in the world in Haksal should give them the win here.  The new patch is live this weekend which gave Genji some new buffs and a lot of teams are finding success with him now, where NYXL were using him well even before this patch.  I do think the Charge have a great team and this should be a close one, but with the current meta I have to take the Excelsior here, Haksal is just too good.

Valiant (8-6) vs Eternal (6-10)

Sunday 6/28 at 3:00 PM EST

Valiant ML -135. This is my favorite bet of the weekend, and if I had done a ‘Value Pick of the Week’, this would be it.  The Valiant have looked fantastic lately knocking off the Mayhem last week and winning 6 of their last 7, with their only loss coming against the best team in the world, the Shock.  While the Damage line of Xxi and Sparkle of the Eternal is intimidating, you can bet on Sparkle popping off on the Genji – the Eternal have been relying too heavily on him to carry.  While the Eternals record looks decent, they have not beaten a team in the top half of the table in a long time.  Not to mention when these teams met in May Melee, the Valiant won 3-2.

Reign (6-6) vs Titans (3-7)

Sunday 6/28 at 5:00 PM EST

Avoid.  I have no idea which Reign team will show up here.  On paper they should win this easily, but with the line set at 2.5, and both sides paying negative, I do not see value in betting on this match.  The Reign do tend to dominate the bottom tier teams, but the Titans have been improving a lot lately.  Tough to tell what will happen here.

 

Fusion (15-1) vs Shock (13-2)

Sunday 6/28 at 7:00 PM EST

No Odds Posted.  I really wish they were posting odds on this match as this is easily the match of the week.  The two best teams in the West face off in what could easily be a Summer Showdown Final preview.  Most people seem to be saying this is a 50/50 pick, but I think the Shock are easy favorites in this one.  If your book has odds on this I would take Shock as long as it pays -125 or better.

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