OWL Week 21 Day 1 – Betting Picks and Analysis

No Hero Bans

 

Charge (11-6) vs Hunters (4-12)

Saturday 6/27 at 4:00 AM EST

Avoid.  The Charge look like the second best team in APAC right now and with Nero back in the mix this week they should have the depth to be able to win this match regardless of what the new patch, and no hero pools does to the meta.  The downside is you really never know what Hunters team is going to show up.  They are too hit or miss of a team for me to be willing to bet for or against.  I expect the Charge to win this 3-0, but there is just too much risk that the Hunters steal a map.

 

Dynasty (6-6) vs Dragons (16-1)

Saturday 6/27 at 6:00 AM EST

Avoid. This is a rematch from the May Melee finals, in which the Dragons reverse swept the Dynasty to win 4-3.  This should be a great match to watch this week but the Dynasty’s inability to adapt to different metas will lead too the Dragons winning this one.  I would expect this to be 3-1 or 3-2 Dragons, so I don’t see any value in any of the Spreads or Money lines in this one.

 

Spark (7-8) vs Spitfire (7-12)

Saturday 6/27 at 8:00 AM EST

Spark cover -1.5 (-115). The Spitfire won 3-0 against the Hunters last weekend and looked solid in the May Melee (when there were no hero bans) by taking the Dragons to a map 5.  I think they are solid enough to take a map from the Spark but end up losing 3-1.  The Spark are simply the better team right now.  The additions of Architect on the Damage roll and QOQ as a Tank had an immediate impact last weekend where they reverse swept a stacked NYXL team and took the Charge to a map 5.  Also, the last time these teams met the Spark won 3-0, although it was during a Hero ban week.

 

Mayhem (10-5) vs Outlaws (6-10)

Saturday 6/20 at 3:00 PM EST

Outlaws cover +1.5 (-115). The Outlaws made us rich last weekend and we are going to continue to ride this underrated team.  Dante has been an absolute beast on the Tracer, and should be able to more than match Yaki.  If Genji is in play this weekend the Outlaws might be in trouble, as they do not have a player than can use him at a high level, but they should be able to overcome this with solid Echo and Doomfist play out of Dante and Blasé.  The Mayhem crashed down to earth last weekend when the lost to the Valiant 1-3.  They will be out with a vengeance but teams have learned how to counter their play style and the Outlaws are starting to look like a top team.

 

Fuel (4-8) vs Defiant (5-9)

Saturday 6/27 at 5:00 PM EST

Defiant ML +120. The Fuel imploded last weekend losing to a Titans roster that had yet to get a win 0-3.  This was in large part because their all-star damage player Decay did not play.  There are a lot fo rumors swirling around about why, but he either asked to be benched for rest, or the coaching staff wanted to give newcomer Omnigod a chance to play in what they though would be an easy match up.  Either way, a loss like this destroys a teams confidence and they have now lost 3 straight.  The Defiant on the other hand have been on the rise, looking better each week and going 2-2 in their last 4.  Though both wins were against the Titans, we did just see the Titans demolish the Fuel.

 

Titans (3-7) vs Uprising (2-12)

Saturday 6/27 at 7:00 PM EST

Uprising ML -115.  Even though the Titans dismantled the Fuel last week, the fact that Decay was out puts a huge asterisk on that win.  That being said, the Titan have definitely improved the last few weeks with the addition of Shockwave which is why the books are calling this an even match.  The Uprising have looked like a real team lately though (much better than the Fuel looked last week).  They beat the Gladiators 3-2 a few weeks and and too the Eternal to a map 5 twice.  This could go to a map 5, but the Uprising should be the favorites here.

 

Justice (3-12) vs Gladiators (5-6)

Saturday 6/27 at 9:00 PM EST

Avoid. The Justice barely even showed up the last few weeks, losing 0-3 in their last 3 matches. I think there is a decent chance that happens again, but it costs -150 so not worth it.  The Gladiators have not looked themselves the past few weeks, and while the loss to the Outlaws is justifiable, they also lost to the Uprising a few weeks ago.  I think the Justice are overdue to at least take a map, and don’t see any value on getting into the action on this one.

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