OWL Week 20 Day 1 – Betting Picks and Analysis

Dynasty (6-5) vs Charge (9-6)

Saturday 6/20 at 4:00 AM EST

The Dynasty made us money last weekend when they lost to NYXL as favorites, and I think the same happens this week.  In May Melee the Dynasty were looking at their best and barely beat the Charge in a 3-2 match.  With hero pools the Dynasty have been the most inconsistent team in the league, and I will continue to bet against them whenever they are favorites because they a 1-4 in those scenarios.  The Dynasty are best when they play double shield, which is a viable composition in this hero pool, and yet last week they chose to run dive.  To be fair, they actually looked decent on it, but this tells me that they are more interested in trying new things and preparing for the Summer Showdown tournament than focusing on getting a decent seed.  I think they continue to experiment this week and even if they don’t the Charge should be able to get revenge this week from that May Melee loss.  If Nero plays for the Charge the line will move, so lock this in before starters get announced or more news comes out.  Lock in Charge +175 Moneyline.

 

Spitfire (4-6) vs Hunters (4-10)

Saturday 6/20 at 6:00 AM EST

I am taking Hunter ML -115 here.  I am not confident enough to make it a pick of the week as this should be a close game, and the payout seems fair to me.  Spitfire have lost 5 straight now and they only got 3 map wins during that time.  1 was against the charge and the other 2 were impressively against the Dragons in the May Melee.  To make matters worse, last week, in the same hero pool we will see this weekend, they looked dismal in their 0-3 loss to the Dragons.  The Hunters are known for being inconsistent but did look decent in May Melee as well, taking the NYXL to a map 5.  The last time these teams met the Spitfire won 3-0, but I think we see a different story this week.  That was the first week back for the Spitfire, so the Hunters did not know what to expect, plus, the Hunters have looked solid since then.  They beat the Dynasty 3-0 and took the Charge to a map 5.  Should be a close one but I think the Hunters take the win here.

 

Spark (6-7) vs NYXL (11-3)

Saturday 6/20 at 8:00 AM EST

The NYXL are -1600 favorites in this matchup and I don’t think the Spark can pull off the upset.  The Over/under is at 2.5 which I would think the Spark can cover with the addition of Architect who should get the start over Adora and be an immediate upgrade in the Damage category.  But with 2.5 costing -200 I am more tempted to take the NYXL to cover the -2.5 for a +110 payout, but I would need to see at least +150 to take that.  I am sitting this one out.

 

Shock (11-2) vs Eternal (8-5)

Saturday 6/20 at 3:00 PM EST

The Eternal cover +2.5 here for an easy -160.  Sparkle was INSANE in his debut last week, despite the Eternal sputtering to a 3-2 victory over the Uprising.  On the upside, Eternal are 4-1 in their last 5 with their only loss being against the Valiant who look like a top team right now.  The downside is 2 of those wins were 3-2 against the struggling Uprising and against bottom half teams in the Gladiators and Fuel. What makes me take this cover is in their last 10, the Eternal have only lost against the Fusion and the Mayhem (not counting the aforementioned Valiant) who along with the Shock are the best teams in NA right now, and that was without Sparkle in the lineup.  I am not bullish enough to take them to win, but a 2.5 line is disrespectful, and I am confident that can take at least 1 here.  The scary side of this pick is the Shock have won their last 10 matches and have won 3-0 in 5 of those…the silver lining is that when Brigette has been banned that have ALWAYS dropped a map.

 

Reign (5-6) vs Defiant (5-8)

Saturday 6/20 at 5:00 PM EST

I am really tempted to take Defiant as the underdogs for a meaty +275 payout, but I think this match means more to the Reign, and they end up pulling out the win.  While I still think the Defiant are on the up and up, and the Reign always seem to lose me money, this is a win or restructure type match for the Reign so I am too scared to get involved here.  The fact that Reign beat the Defiant 3-0 during May Melee cancels out the Defiant beating the Titans 3-0 last week.  I am going to sit this one out.

 

Gladiators (5-5) vs Outlaws (5-10)

Saturday 6/20 at 7:00 PM EST

The Outlaws are +525 underdogs in the match, and that is just too match value for me to pass up.  There is huge risk here, considering the Outlaws lost 3-0 last week and the Gladiators won 3-1 and have acquired a solid Flex Damage player in Kevster this week, who will likely see some play time immediately.  But hear me out.  The Outlaws loss was against the Fusion, and they looked decent despite getting shut out, and the Gladiators match could have easily gone the other way.  These teams have yet to play this year, so we really don’t know how they match up, and when Brigette and D. Va were banned the Outlaws went 2-0.  I think the Outlaws are underdogs, but more like +250, so I think there if great value in taking them at +525.  Oh, and the Gladiators lost to the Uprising just a few weeks ago….

 

Fuel (4-7) vs Titans (2-7)

Saturday 6/20 at 9:00 PM EST

The Fuel are huge favorites in this one at -2000, but I think there is decent value in them covering -2.5 for a -115 payout.  They did lose 1-3 to the Mayhem last week but showed some sparks of promise.  Meanwhile the Titans have yet to find their footing, losing their last 8, and even worse, losing 0-3 against the Defiant last week.  I think this is a terrible hero pool for the Titans, and the Fuel take this one easily.

 

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