OWL Week 19 – Value Bets of the Week

Value Bets:
Fuel ML +260 and NYXL ML +175

 

Fuel (4-6) vs Mayhem (9-4)

Saturday 6/13 at 5:00 PM EST

Ok, so the Mayhem are good apparently, like really good.  They made a statement during the May Melee by taking down the Fusion, who have the best record in the league, and went on to challenge the Shock in the Final, though eventually losing 4-2.  Considering they were considered one of the worst OWL franchises in league history earlier this season, this rise in performance has shocked everyone and been a joy to watch.  Now that the public’s perception is that the Mayhem are a top 3 team in the league, this is the perfect time to bet against them.  The Mayhem are a good team, don’t get me wrong, but their May Melee run was more due to the fact that they had a great read on the meta, running Kris on the Brigitte just feeding Yaki armor packs worked like a charm. Also, their wins leading up to the tournament were all against weak competition.  Now that we enter a new hero Ban with a new meta, notably with Brigette out, I think the Mayhem take a step back this week.  The Bans this week really favor double shield comps, where the Fuel feel the most comfortable.  The Fuel’s record does not show how competitive this team really is.  They have been unlucky to only play really good teams like the Shock and the Fusion multiple times, and all of their wins have been against bottom tier teams.  That being said they have yet to have a chance to prove themselves against a mid-table team, but the fact that they have looked decent against the best, leads me to believe this squad has the potential to climb the rankings.  At the end of the day a +260 ML is completely disrespectful and the result of everyone jumping on the Mayhem bandwagon, now is the time to go against the grain.

Damage wise we have a very even matchup with the Fuel will have one of the best duos in the game with Decay on the Ashe/Tracer and Doha on the Mei/Doomfist.  They will be facing off against bqb on the Ashe and rookie sensation Yaki on the Tracer:

 

For our Support, the Mayhem have the advantage, as the Fuels Closer on the Lucio and Crimzo on the Moria have been average at best. They did acquire Paintbrush from the Gladiators during the break, so it will be interesting if he gets some maps and if so what kind of impact he has.  The Mayhem meanwhile have another rookie of the year candidate in GangNamJin on the Moria/Zenyatte and Kris on the Lucio/Baptiste:

 

On the Tank lines, the Fuel have a slight edge that might turn out to be a big advantage as Gamsu on the Orisa and Note on the Sigma are their comfort pick Hero’s that they play best one.  The Mayhem will have to get a little out of their comfort zone with Fate on the Orisa and Gargoyle on the Sigma:

 

 

NYXL (10-3) vs Dynasty (6-4)

Saturday 6/13 at 6:00 AM EST

I don’t know if you’ve heard, but NYXL acquired one of the best Damage players in the League in Haksal.  Oh, and on top of that, highly rated Support Mandu is now old enough to play and will almost certainly replace Anamo as an immediate upgrade.  Wait, I almost forgot, another one of the top Damage players in the world Nenne will return to action this week.  To translate, this team is stacked.  To be fair, the Dynasty have a stacked roster as well, and they did look impressive in the May Melee, but if they have taught us anything this season it’s that they are inconsistent in the Hero Ban play style and refuse to adapt quickly.  They did add Support player Slime to the roster who should be an immediate upgrade over tobi, but I don’t think it will have nearly as much impact as the NYXL’s additions.  The main reasons the Dynasty are favorites in this one is because the Hero Bans favor them, as they will be able to play their preferred double shield, and everyone was so impressed with their May Melee Performance (they lost 4-3 to the Dragons in the Final) that they forgot how inconsistent this team is in Hero Bans.  NYXL at +175 is a steal, as in reality this is an even match up.

In the Damage rolls the NYXL have plenty of options, so expect a few substitutions throughout the match here.  If they feel Haksal has integrated with the team enough to start, then expect him to be on the Mei in a supporting role, or on the Doomfist/Genji with the team investing in him heavily.  If they elect to give him another week of practice with the team, WhoRu will fill the same roll.  For the other Damage roll I expect they will go with Nenne on the Tracer/Ashe, though Libero might get some time as well.  What I really want to see is Haksal on the Doomfist and WhoRu on the Genji, but that might be too risky.  The Dyansty will likely still with their standard starters of Profit on the Mei/Tracer and Fits on the Ashe/Hanzo:

 

For Supports both teams made significant acquisitions during the break, and I expect we will see both of them at least on some maps.  The NYXl will have former MVP JJonak on the Moria/Zenyatta/Baptiste (he can play everything) and hopefully they will give a much-anticipated rookie debut to Mandu on the Lucio, unless they play it safe and go with veteran Anamo.  For the Dynasty they will have Bdosin on the Zenyatta and either tobi, or newly added Slime on the Lucio.  Most would argue Slime is a better player but without much time practicing with the team it is hard to say if they feel he is ready:

 

And on the Tank lines the NYXL will have to put their D. Va specialist Hotba on the Sigma, while Mano will play Reinhardt/Orisa.  They will match up against Gesture on the Reinhardt/Orisa and Marve1 on the Sigma:

 

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