OWL Week 19 – Match of the Week – Gladiators vs. Reign

Gladiators (4-5) vs Reign (5-5)

Value Bet: Reign ML at +105

This is the match to watch this week.  Both teams have solid rosters and are desperate to establish themselves in the top third of the table.  The Gladiators have yet to really live up to their roster potential this year, they started off with a solid win over the Shock in week 8 (the Shock 3-0 them the next time the met) but since then they have not been able to beat top teams and have lost 3 of their last 4, including a loss to the lowly Uprising (the win was against the Justice).  While they have looked ok in similar ban weeks, I think the dagger for them is D.Va is banned which means Space will have to play Orisa, as opposed to his best hero by far.  To be fair, the Reign have also failed to live up to expectations this season.  The difference is, they manage to beat all the lower tier teams and lose to all the top tier. They went 2-2 in their last 4 with these losses coming against top 5 teams.  I think the Gladiators have a tougher Ban week and have been too inconsistent to win this despite being favorites.  The Reign meanwhile are not playing as well as they could if they would just start Erster, but this is still a great match up for them.

The Reign could win this match 3-0 if they would just start Erster over babybay, in what is perhaps the most frustrating line up choice so far this season.  At this point I really just want them to trade Erster so I can see him work his magic.  Since that is unlikely to happen this week, expect to see babybay on the Ashe/McCree/Widow and Edison on the Mei/Tracer.  They will face off against long time verteran Birdring on the Tracer/Reaper/Ashe/McCree and MirroR on the Mei/Doomfist.  As I mentioned in my betting preview for this week, there are a lot of Damage Heros that can create value this week, so expect a variety to appear depending on the map, but when in doubt there will always be a Mei in play.

 

For the supports, I will say I believe the Gladitors have the edge here (see stats below). The Reign will field their big personality in Dogman on the Moria for the most part with Masaa on the Lucio.  Lately though they have been giving the start to Kodak on the Baptiste or Zenyatta, which could continue this week unless they feel that having a Lucio is a necessity.  For the Gladiators they will stick with what they have all season, BigGoose on the Lucio and Shaz on the Moria (with Baptiste or Zenyatta mixed in depending on the maps).

 

Tank lines are in huge favor of the Reign, and the reason they win this match.  Gator and Hawk have looked fantastic on the Orisa and Sigma respectively this season, and with D. Va out of the picture, this is by far the most reliable tank combo.  The last time D. Va was banned the Gladiators went exclusively with OGE on the Reinhardt And Space on the Orisa which in my opinion is an inferior double shield comp, and Space looks uncomfortable on the Orisa.  Reinhardt is a comfort pick for OGE, but his aggressive play style just does not work in a double shield meta.

 

This should be a back and forth match with the matchups to watch being babyaby vs Birdring and if the aggression if OGE pays off, or get punished by the discipline of Hawk and Gator.

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