OWL Week 14 Roundup: Betting Picks and Predictions

Just a quick roundup of the other matches this week with our picks and perspective.  With OWL Pros retiring left and right, there is enough uncertainty out there to create value in any match.  Also, there are now Total Map props to bet on which can make for some great action. You can also check out my Week 14 Value Pick, Match of the Week, Hero Ban Analysis, and my review of the opening betting lines.

Dragons (9-1) vs Dynasty (3-3)

A rematch from 2 weeks ago when this was hyped up to be a clash of the titans yet turned into the Dragons demolishing the Dynasty and planting themselves firmly as the best team in the East.  The difference this week, is not double shield is meta, which is what the Dynasty play best at.  The Dragons still win this one but it looks like a closer match.  I have the Dynasty stealing a map, but nothing more.  People are still thinking that the Dynasty are better than they are.  Dragons cover -1.5 pays -190.

Charge (5-6) vs Excelsior (8-2)

Last time out the Excelsior swept the Charge 3-0.  While I don’t think that happens again, there is no way that Charge win this one.  The Excelsior are starting to figure out how and when to use Whoru and look more dangerous than usual right now.  On the flip side, I would argue that the Charge are also playing their best Overwatch right now and could make this competitive.  The downside is the spread is +2.5 charging -200 which is way too expensive.  I am sitting this one out.

Justice (2-9) vs Titans (2-2)

Where to begin.  No one is placing odds on this match, so we don’t even need to talk about it.  But the Titans are fielding essentially the Second Wind roster, which is a Tier 2 team from Contenders they just picked up yesterday, having dropped their entire roster because of camp drama.  Meanwhile, the only good player on Washington (Corey) retired today.  This should be a close match, but nothing to bet on here.

Outlaws (4-8) vs Reign (4-4)

This almost made it into my value bet of the week post.  The public for some reason is still obsessed with the Reign being the same quality team they were at the end of last season, but every indication is they have regressed, and have not adapted to hero pools.  Meanwhile, the Outlaws are thriving under Hero pools get a disrespectful +270 ML.  Judging by the payouts on spread and map total, the books think this has a map 5 written all over it, and I agree, except anything can happen in map 5 so I am taking the value here.  Both teams have lost their last two matches so they will be desperate for a win to stay in the May Tournament hunt. Outlaws +270.

Valiant (3-6) vs Uprising (1-9)

The Valiant are -550 favorites here and I honestly don’t think it’s enough.  What is interesting is the -2.5 spread is paying +120.  The Valiant have had a tough schedule this season and are overall underrated because of it.  They have looked better every week and their epic 3-2 win against the Reign last week might have been the spark the lights this team on fire the next few weeks.  Uprising on the other hand are in shambles at the moment, and I don’t think they will get the train back on the tracks for another few weeks.  Valiant -2.5 please.

Spark (5-5) vs Dragons (9-1)

The Dragons will take care of business here.  The Dragons have already swept this twice this year, and I don’t see this being any different.  With the Books nice enough to give us a spread at -2.5 paying +135, I am tempted enough to take it.

Spitfire (3-2) vs Charge (5-6)

This should be a good match depending on what we think we can expect to see from the Spitfire this week.  The Charge are playing very well right now so I think they win this one.  They are -360 favorites and it’s tough to get excited about either side of the 1.5 spread.  Until I see the Spitfire in action on Saturday I am going to stay away from this one.

Fuel (4-4) vs Fusion (10-1)

This is a sleeper match of the week.  The was the Fuel have been playing lately they should be able to make this one interesting.  Add that on top of these teams have 2 of the best Echo players in the world going head to head makes for prime time TV.  The Fuel have won 4 of their last 5 with their only loss coming from a tight match against the Shock.  The Fusion, who have been untouchable this season but seem obsessed with taking every match to map 5, are -400 favorites.  Fun fact though, the Fusions only loss came when Reinhart was banned, and the Fuel prefer double shield anyway.  This is my upset call of the week.  Fuel win this at +270

Defiant (4-6) vs Shock (6-2)

This one might be tough to watch.  The Shock seemed to be just getting warmed up, having won 5 straight now, and they have the best Echo player in the world.  Meanwhile, the Defiant have lost to everyone except the worst 2 teams in the league.  This should be an annihilation.  The Shock cover -2.5 at +135.

Mayhem (5-4) vs Titans (2-2)

No one is posting odds here because of the Titans situation.  Will be curious if anything gets posted after they play on Saturday, but I doubt it.  Regardless, Mayhem win this one.

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