Overwatch League Week 15 – Value Picks of the Week

Value Bets:
Fuel ML +135 and Defiant ML +175

 

Fuel (4-5) vs Eternal (6-5)

Sunday 5/17 at 3:00 PM EST

The easy money this week is Fuel over the Eternal for a solid +135.  The Eternal are coming off a win over the Gladiators last week, in which we took them as underdogs.  They are playing well, especially considering their flex Support Greyy retired, and Damage starter Xzi is still unavailable.  In their absence, South Korean rookie Fielder has looked like a potential rookie of the year candidate on Support, and Soon and NiCOgdh have stepped up in their Damage roles.  On top of that, they have played their best when Rienhardt is available, giving the Fusion their only loss, and taking the Shock to the brink.  Other than that, I have trouble getting excited about the Eternal.  They got shutout by the Mayhem and have had close games against the despairing Outlaws twice this season.  It might be a week over week meta issue, but in my opinion the Fuel are the more consistent, and more confident team right now, even if Orisa being banned means they can’t play on their preferred Double Shield.  Without Double Shield, the Fuel will likely go with a Dive composition, which they have shown they are rather good at.  The Fuel are itching for an impressive win, having taken both the Shock and the Fusion to the brink, and this is the match I think they finally break through.

The Fuels combo in Decay and Doha has been lethal lately, and I think they dominate this matchup.  I expect them to run a Dive composition for the most part, so expect to see Decay on the Sombra and Doha on the Doomfist/Sombra/Echo.  If they end up feeling like Brawl is more the meta, then it will be Decay on the McCree and Doha on the Reaper.  For the Eternal, I think we see NiCOgdh struggle playing something other than Mei, as he will have to be on Doomfist/Sombra/Echo with SoOn running the Reaper or maybe even Torbjorn.

The Support line ups will be rather even, with Crimzo on the Ana/Baptiste and Closer on the Lucio for the Fuel up against rookie Fielder on the Ana and FDGod on the Lucio.

For the Tanks I expect to see the Fuel run with Gamsu on the Reinhardt for Brawl or Winston for Dive, alongside their All-Star Flex Tank NotE as Sigma or D. Va.  This will be a fun match up as they go against a similar playstyle in the Eternal with BenBest likely returning to the lineup as Reindardt for Brawl, and Hanbin as D. Va/Sigma.  Alternatively, with how good NoSmite looked on the Winston, they might elect to go with Dive and start him.

 

Defiant (4-7) vs Valiant (4-6)

Sunday 5/17 at 7:00 PM EST

Defiant ML for +175 is a perfect cap off to the weekend.  Everyone is so hot on the Valiant because they won 2 games in a row that they forget that one of those was to the wet paper bag of the Uprising and the other was a reverse sweep against an overrated Reign, who should have locked the match up multiple times but made stupid mistakes, practically gifting them the win.  I am not saying the Valiant are bad, but people need to relax.  Before this 2 match win streak they got shut out by the Shock and lost to mid table teams in the Fuel and Gladiators.  They are playing better as of late but to put them as -245 favorites is absurd.  The Defiant on the other hand just experienced a renaissance.  Kruise is back, and my goodness was his leadership, shot calling and confidence missed.  They looked like an entirely different team with him in against the Shock last week, nearly taking it to a map 5.  While they have only beaten the 2 worst team in the league for 3 of their 4 wins, peoples forget that they started of the season by beating the Eternal convincingly (with Kruise).  I think this one goes to a map 5, but I think it is time for the Defiant to get back to their true potential.

The Damage line ups are stacked.  The Defiant have one of the best hit scans on the league in Logix on the McCree/Reaper, and either Agilites on the Dommfist/Echo or Surefour on the Torbjorn/Sombra.  The Valiant on the other hand have an impressive three headed snake themselves, with KSP on the Reaper/McCree, KSF on the Torbjorn/Doomfist, and Shax specializing in Reaper/Torbjorn.

On Support the Defiant have their fearless leader Kruis back on the Lucio, pairing with KariV on the Ana.  They will be up against Valiant’s Lastro on the Ana and RaiN on the Lucio.

For the Tanks we will have a very competitive matchup, as these are really the weak point for both teams.  The Defiant will have Beast on the Reinhardt and Nevix on the D. Va/Sigma, while the Valiant will have Mcgravy on the D.Va/Sigma, and either DREAMER on the Winston for Dive, or GiG on the Reinhadt for Brawl.

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