Overwatch League Week 13 – Betting Preview & Predictions

Hero Bans – McCree, Widow, Wrecking Ball and Mercy

General Notes:

McCree has been banned for the 4th time this week (he has been banned every possible week) and will be the most impactful ban as we analyze the match ups this week.  The nice thing about the consistent McCree ban is we know what to expect at this point, the bad news is there is a huge curveball coming this week, with new Hero Echo making her debut in the Overwatch League.  With so much uncertainty in what her play rate, effectiveness and, most importantly, which teams will maximize her, should lead to some lucrative lines this week.  Without Echo, the McCree ban has led to mostly Reaper/Mei or Sombra/Pharah compositions.  With Mercy banned, Pharah is a no go, and Echo loses some value as well, which means Mei/Reaper might be the standard for stable compositions, and for those teams that love to dive, expect to see Sombra, Tracer, Doomfist and hopefully Echo.  Here is how the Damage play rates have looked while McCree is banned:

The Mercy ban only means Pharah will not be played, and that we might need to wait another week to see Echo.  Expect to see more of the same this week with Lucio and Ana, along with some Zenyatta and Brigitte.  This is the first time Mercy has been banned, but in the ‘Pre-Ban’ matches, where she was hardly played, here is what the play rates looked like:

Finally, the Wrecking Ball ban will make it harder for teams to stall, and force dive teams to play more D.Va and Winston.  Overall, not a huge impact for most teams, and the mainstay Reinhart/D.Va should be the most common lineup.  Of note though, Orisa does return this week, so teams wanting to fun double shield will be playing Orisa/Sigma.  Not a ton of data here but this is what Tank play rates looked like the last time Ball was banned:

Game of the Week:

Dragons (8-1) vs Excelsior (7-1):

Coming off their impressive win against a highly touted Dynasty last week, expect the Dragons to take this one as -180 favorites.  This should be the clash of titans we have been wanting to see.  I know last week we saw the Dragons absolutely dismantle the Dynasty in what was expected to be a great match up, so here’s to hoping this will be different.  Both teams have been absolutely thrashing their opponents. The NYXL’s only loss has come against the Fusion, who have also looked great this year, and since then they have won 5 straight, along with a map record of 12-1.  The huge elephant in the room with that 7-1 record is they have yet to beat a good team.  Yes, the Spitfire are 6th right now but they have not played anyone good either, and the Mayhem are 9th now thanks to a resurgence (and soft schedule) as of late.  In fact, even with those 2 wins the average rank of the teams they have beaten is 14.6 (out of 20).  On the other hand, after an inexplicable 0-3 loss to the Hunters early in the year, the Dragons have won 7 straight with a 21-1 map record.  Admittedly, their average opponents rank has only been 13.6, but that can but attributed to the fact that they have been destroying the same 3 teams every week.  Here are the team’s stats based on the meta while McCree is banned (all stats are per 10 minutes):

For our Damage picks the big mystery will be how much Echo we get to see.  Depending on her usage we might see a more dive style including a Doomfist or Tracer.  If teams don’t feel confident with her yet expect to see more of the Sombra/Mei/Reaper.  This will likely mean the NYXL play Libero on Sombra and SAEBYOLBE on Reaper since Nenne is still out sick.  WhoRu might also make an appearance on Echo or Genji.  The Dragons have a stacked Damage line up so it is always hard to tell who they might play, but with the performances LIP has been putting in I would expect to see him on the Sombra and Fleta on the Reaper/Mei.  It is always possible that DDding and/or Diem, but not sure who will play the Echo on this squad.

For the NYXL Support we will get to see the former MVP JJonak on the Ana or Zenyatta partnered with Anamo on the Lucio or Brigitte.  They will be lined up against LeeJaegon on the Lucio and IZaYaKI on the Ana/Zenyatta.

The Tank lines will have Mano on Reinhart/Winston and Hotba on the D.Va/Sigma for the NYXL.  While the Dragons have a few more options and might rotate Stand1 or FEARLESS on the Reinhart/Winston while Void plays the Sigma or D.Va.

Value Bet of the Week:

Fuel (3-4) vs Justice (2-8)

For some inexplicable reason the books opened with the Fuel as +180 underdogs.  There is tremendous value here as the Fuel are the clear favorites against a struggling Justice squad.  The Fuel shut out the Justice the last time they played and have looked rock solid over their past 3 games under multiple hero bans.  The Fuel have played decent without McCree, whereas the Justice still look terrible, and are arguably the second worst team in the league right now.  They have a star in their Damage player Corey, and he might clutch out a map win, but he won’t be enough to carry them through this one.  The Justice have only managed to beat the Outlaws while they were awful at the beginning of the year, and a Boston team that barely shows up.  The only curveball is how Echo plays out in the matchup.  Here are the team stats in the McCree ban meta (all stats are per 10 minutes):

For Damage the Fuel have their impressive duo in Decay and Doha playing on Mei/Reaper/Tracer/Doomfist/Echo depending on the Map type.  This will be a good challenge for them as they go up against Corey and either Ttuba (who has looked solid lately) or Stratus, depending if they want to go Mei or Doomfist/Echo.  Corey will be lighting it up on whichever a handful of Hero’s, most likely Reaper/Tracer.

For Tanks the Fuel will have Gamsu on the Rein/Orisa and Note on the Dva/Sigma.  This Tank line has been exceeding expectations and I wouldn’t doubt if they dominate the frontline of the Justice.  Speaking of which, the Justice will have ElliVOTE on the D.Va/Sigma and rOar on the Rein.

Support wise it is a better matchup with Dallas fielding Closer and Crimzo on the Lucio/any flex support lined up against ArK and Aimgod likely running the same style of Lucio along with Ana/Brig/Zen

The Roundup:

Dynasty (3-1) vs Charge (4-6)

Coming off the embarrassing 0-3 loss to the Dragons, I expect the Dynasty to bounce back and sweep the Charge in this one.  Dynasty are just a much better squad, especially with Neptuno of the Charge still in quarantine.  The Charge have been swept in their last 3 matches (albeit 2 of those were to NYXL and Dragons).  Dynasty are -335 favorites, so we are taking the -1.5 cover to grab that -130 payout.  Even if Charge sneak in a map win this still hits, so feeling very confident here as the books have struggled to figure out these spread odds.

Valiant (2-6) vs Reign (4-3)

The Valiant have looked decent this season, and the 2-6 record is more the result of a super challenging schedule.  Reign have had an overall disappointing start to the season considering their expectations.  They have managed to beat the teams they should, they haven’t managed to beat a ‘good’ team yet. I am surprised to see Reign as -300 favorites, but I see value in the Reign to cover -1.5.

Outlaws (4-7) vs Shock (5-2)

The Shock have looked beatable at times this season, and with Echo coming into the meta we might see more Dive strategies this week, which would favor the Outlaws who seem to be improving every week. While the Outlaw’s tend to play up to their competition and should make this a competitive match (the Shock are -500 favorites) Too much uncertainty here to get in on the action.

Dynasty (3-1) vs Spark (4-5)

Last time these teams met the Dynasty won 3-0.  I have no reason to expect otherwise.  Dynasty will want to assert their dominance over the rest of the Eastern Teams after getting trashed by the Dragons.  Lock in the sweep for the Dynasty with the -2.5 paying +150.

Hunters (3-7) vs Excelsior (7-1)

Hunters will not be looking forward to facing NYXL twice in a row after getting easily swept last week.  They have their elite player in Jinmu but the NYXL play smart enough to contain him and should be able to take another sweep here.  Another good payoff with the -2.5 paying +140.

Fusion (9-1) vs Eternal (5-4)

The Eternal have struggled with Hero pools, but they have forced a map 5 against Fusion twice and are 1-1 against.  The bad news is, they followed that up by getting swept by the Mayhem.  The Fusion meanwhile have looked unstoppable and are rightfully -375 favorites in this one.  Take the -1.5 spread to get the -150.

Mayhem (4-4) vs Uprising (1-8)

Last week the Mayhem took this one 3-0 in perhaps the most one-sided match of the season.  If the Uprising managed to put themselves back together in time to even play, it will just be to get trashed 3-0 again. How are they letting the spread only be -1.5?  Take the -130 payout here.

Defiant (4-5) vs Gladiators (3-3)

Defiant had potential at the beginning of the season but have yet to beat anyone other than the 2 worst teams in the league., and with the departure of Kellex today that is unlikely to change.  The Gladiators are a top 10 team and should take care of business here.  To scary to take a spread but feel confident with the Gladiators here.

Parlay of the Week:

Reign cover -1.5 against Valiant -130

Mayhem cover -1.5 against Uprising -190

Gladiators Beat Defiant -225

Pays +290

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