Nine to Five Playoffs – July 14, 2020

     We’re back. I didn’t do any write ups last week due to the majority of top tier teams going in to a player break. The break came upon the conclusion of the Summit6 competition. BiG was the European Region champions, while the North American region was claimed by Evil Geniuses. I hope all of you got on my plays for the BiG/Vitality match to close things up with the top tier teams. I also hope that none of you road my twitter picks last week, as I struggled to get a feel for the lower tier competition. I feel like I got a much better read as the week went on, and look forward to capping more focused teams now that Nine to Five playoffs are here. I’ll be looking to play at least one match from every time slot during the Nine to Five playoffs. If you’re in America, all of these matches will take place in the middle of the night or early morning. If you’re looking for day time action, there will be Malta Vibes matches, but the match ups are decided by a same day opening best of one. I stay away from best of ones, so you’ll have to check my twitter (@MoneyMiner_) for my day time plays! I suggest turning on notifications as a majority of these plays will come within 30 minutes of the start time. Let’s get in to our Nine to Five picks, which includes a collaboration play with @FuckDaBookies!

Summit6 Playoffs: 12-11 (+5.15u)

Summit6 Group: 6-6 (+1.1u)

 

Avez (-140) vs Hard Legion (+110) – 3:00am EST

     The Nine to Five quarter finals begin on Tuesday with all four matches being played. Four of the teams received invites to the playoffs, while the other four were forced to go through qualifiers and win the opening round to get here. In this match up, the invited team is Hard Legion. Avez finds themself in the quarter finals after going 3-0 in the qualify stage. They didn’t drop a single map during qualifiers, with their wins coming against Nexus, Illuminar and Crazy. Their opening round playoff match was against Wisla Karkow, which they won in 2-1 fashion. Hard Legion will be Avez’s toughest test in the event thus far, as they are a tier above the competition Avez has already faced. Bookmakers seem to think this will be a close series, with Avez actually being slightly favored. Let’s dive into the map pool and see if we can find any value.

     I’m going to assume that Avez will have the first ban and map pick, since they are the lower seeded team. Avez will get things started by using their first ban on Mirage. Hard Legion will then use their first ban on Nuke. Each team tends to use Overpass for their first map pick, so it wont surprise me to see each team go with their secondary choice in order to leave Overpass as the tie breaker. With that being said, I think Avez will use their pick on Train and Hard Legion will pick Inferno. Even if the order is a little off, I would expect to see Train, Inferno and Overpass as the map pool.

      I think that this map pool gives a slight edge to Hard Legion. These teams are pretty equally matched on Overpass, each with just about a 60% win rate, so I think that will be the most contested map in the series. Overpass would be a good spot to hit a live play of over 26.5 rounds. Train is another map that the teams are pretty even in term of win percentage, but since it’ll be Avez’s map pick, Hard Legion will be able to start on the CT side. CT’s have a massive edge on Train, so a strong start from Hard Legion could be disastrous for Avez. The biggest edge in the map pool favors Hard Legion on Inferno. Hard Legion has played Inferno 34 times in the past three months and has managed to keep about a 50% win rate. Avez has only played Inferno 6 times in that span (3-3), which means it’s their least played map other than their insta ban. I think Hard Legions experience will provide them with a leg up on a map that is dictated by clear communication and decision making. 

      All in all, I think the book makers have this line wrong. I think the numbers should be flipped and I would make Hard Legion a slight favorite. Avez has been playing well, but Hard Legion is a tier ahead of them in terms of skill. Hard Legion also plays against much better competition than Avez typically sees. Considering Hard Legion has the more skilled players, the only map pool edge, and is the dog, I see this as a no brainer two unit play.

Miner’s Money Pick: Hard Legion (+110) *2u* 

 

Gambit Youngsters (-300) vs Syman (+220) – 6:00am EST

     The other match I’ll be targeting during the Nine to Five quarter finals is between Gambit Youngsters and Syman. In this matchup, Gambit is the team that received the invite, while Syman was forced to go through qualifying play. Syman managed a 3-0 record during qualifiers before going on to beat Illuminar 2-1 in the opening round of playoffs. Syman and Gambit are no strangers, as they’ve met for two series in 2020 prior to this one. Gambit was able to take both of those series by a 2-0 score line. The winner of this match will go on to take on the winner of Endpoint/Alternate Attax in the semi finals.

     Since Gambit is the higher seed, Syman should have the opening move in the map pool ban/pick. Syman will star things out by banning Vertigo. Gambit will then use their first ban on Nuke. Syman will most likely use their first pick on Train, but may opt to their secondary pick of Inferno. Gambit Youngsters will most likely use their map pick on Overpass or Mirage. Gambit has a 70% win rate on both Mirage and Overpass, while Syman isn’t close to 50% on either map. Syman should use their second ban on Mirage/Overpass depending on the Gambit pick. Gambit would then use their ban on Inferno/Train to force the tie breaking map on Dust2. 

     Gambit has been absolutely dominant against Syman in the past. These two teams have met for four best of threes in the organizations history. Gambit hasn’t dropped a single map in any of those meetings and I don’t expect that to change on Tuesday. Despite their record, Syman wasn’t too impressive during the qualifiers, so I don’t see much reason to put any faith into them. They’ve also only won an average of 7.125 rounds per map against Gambit. I’ll be looking to back Gambit to win 2-0 at even money. Gambit should take their map pick with ease. They’ve beat Syman on both Train and Inferno already this year, with Inferno being a blowout. Syman picking Train will give Gambit the CT side start, which can be scary if Gambit starts strong. All of this is pointing to another 2-0.

Miner’s Money Pick: Gambit Youngsters -1.5 (+100)

 

Collaboration play with @FuckDaBookies – Endpoint (+105) vs Alternate Attax (-135) – 6:00am EST

     “Endpoint and Alternate Attax played on Monday during the Malta Vibes event. The match went to three maps with Alternate Attax eventually finding the win. These teams are extremely evenly matched and should be prepped for another battle, which starts less than 12 hours after the conclusion of their previous match. I’ll be backing Endpoint as they gain an edge in the map veto. They are able to use their ban on Vertigo and take away AA’s best map. AA doesn’t have a true edge on any other map, so this creates massive value on Endpoint. Endpoint also showed that they can go toe to toe on AA’s secondary pick, Overpass, although they eventually lost 16-14. They should continue to dominate Train, where they found a 16-6 win on Monday against AA. Endpoint will also have the last ban, so they’ll dictate which map is the decider. As the losing team, it should be easier for Endpoint to make small the adjustments needed to come away with a win on Tuesday. To top it all off, we’re getting a plus money line at +105!” – @MoneyMiner_ (Twitter.com/MoneyMiner_)

     “Endpoint and AA just finished up their Malta Vibes Final Match. I actually had AA to win and they pulled it off in a tight matchup. AA has been on fire, winning all of their last 8 matches. However, you all know fire has to burn out at some point and I think it will happen tonight. Endpoint will be looking for revenge against AA. They put a battle in the finals match and got embarrassed on their best map, Inferno. Endpoint will most likely ban Vertigo again which makes 6 out of the 7 remaining maps an advantage to Endpoint. Dust 2 is the 1 disadvantaged map that Endpoint has, besides Vertigo, and it is a small disadvantage. I actually think Endpoint would win on Dust 2 if chosen by AA because Endpoint has played it 41 times compared to AA playing it only 13 times. Overall, I give the advantage to Endpoint in every map besides Vertigo. I would not be surprised if Endpoint wins 2-0. I expect them to play with extra motivation tonight. The loss to AA makes Endpoint an underdog, which provides us with great betting value. Let’s take advantage of the bookies mistake and cash!” – @FuckDaBookies (Twitter.com/FuckDaBookies)

Collaboration Pick: Endpoint (+105) *2u*

 

Bonus Nine to Five spot:

  • AGF vs Secret – This play is for my night owls and European readers! This map pool could shape up perfectly for an over, but it’s too hard to tell pre match. Each team uses Vertigo as their first ban, so it’s too hard to predict which team(s) will bypass that ban to try to gain an edge on the rest of the map pool. But if Mirage and Inferno end up being the first two maps played, you should bet the over for your max bet. Just look at these teams records on each map over the past three months. 
    • Mirage – Secret (10-2) AGF (1-3)
    • Inferno – Secret (1-7) AGF (13-7)
      • The over is currently priced at +110 which offers a ton of value for the specific map pool. 

Join the Discussion

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Back to top