LPL 2020 Summer Split – Betting Preview & Analysis – Tuesday June 16th, 2020

Dominus Esports vs. LGD Gaming – 5:00AM ET

Oh My God vs. Top Esports – 7:00AM ET

Betting Record (12-8, +1.47 units) – LPL 2020 Summer Split

Dominus Esports (0-2) vs. LGD Gaming (2-0) – 5:00AM ET

Moneyline Odds: LGD Gaming (-750) | Dominus Esports (+465)

Map Handicap: LGD Gaming -1.5 (-175) | Dominus Esports +1.5 (+135)

Projected Lineups

DMO: TOP – Natural | JNG – Xiaopeng | MID – Twila | ADC – Helper | SUP – Mitsuki

LGD: TOP – Langx | JNG – Peanut | MID – xiye | ADC – Kramer | SUP – Mark

 

This new & improved roster for LGD Gaming has looked very solid through two series, and they are well on their way to a spot in the playoffs. They are currently a -175 favorite to sweep Dominus Esports, despite the fact that they haven’t swept a team in the Summer Split yet. They beat eStar 2-1 in their first series of the season, and the only reason they even lost a game was due to a poor draft in my opinion. I really like the way LGD looks when xiye plays as TwistedFate, although I don’t mind him as Syndra either. LGD’s most recent 2-1 win over Victory Five was impressive because V5 has shown that they are now a force to be reckoned with. Victory Five was able to win a game in that series simply by outplaying LGD, which speaks to how good this V5 roster currently is. In both series, LGD was clearly the better team overall.

Dominus Esports has played the same opponents as LGD so far and has gotten swept by both of them. Victory Five went with an aggressive draft against Dominus including SamD as Kalista for both games. Kalista can dominate if she gets early kills, which means that V5 drafted her because they knew they could make quick work of Dominus. I didn’t love the drafts for Dominus Esports against eStar, but they did keep it somewhat close, at least in the first game. This team doesn’t seem to have an identity right now and it would be surprising to see them win in this spot.

LGD sweeping 2-0 is definitely the most likely outcome here, but I really don’t see any value at these odds. I do think that we will see plenty of kills in this series, so I like betting the 1st Map – Total Kills – Over 23.5 [1 UNIT]. The line is the same for the 2nd map, but I think that the 1st game should be more competitive and have more kills. LGD could come close to this total on their own depending on how things play out. I do think LGD may be more vulnerable to lose a game than the odds are showing, and I will consider live betting Dominus Esports if they get a draft that I find favorable. I think that Kramer (ADC) is an excellent play for DFS, especially as a STAR/CPT.

Bet: 1st Map - Total Kills - Over 23.5 [1 UNIT]
Favorite DFS Play: Kramer (ADC)

 

 

Oh My God (0-3) vs. Top Esports (2-0) – 7:00AM ET

Moneyline Odds: Top Esports (-1111) | Oh My God (+600)

Map Handicap: Top Esports -1.5 (-265) | Oh My God +1.5 (+200)

Projected Lineups

OMG: TOP – Curse | JNG – H4cker | MID – icon | ADC – Smlz | SUP – cold

TES: TOP – 369 | JNG – Karsa | MID – knight | ADC – JackeyLove | SUP – yuyanjia

 

Is Top Esports the best team in the LPL right now? Definitely. Are they the best team in the world right now? I certainly think so. TES swept their first Summer Split series against Rogue Warriors without JackeyLove. Top Esports easily won with QiuQiu as their support, and knight was incredible to watch, finishing with 25 Kills – 4 deaths – 15 assists. Many people thought JD Gaming would be a tough opponent for Top Esports, but TES swept them 2-0 in their most recent series. JDG did their best to slow down knight, but JackeyLove was back for this series, and he did not disappoint. JD Gaming allowed TES to draft an Ezreal/Yuumi combination in the 2nd game, which meant that JackeyLove was truly unstoppable. It should be a long time before we see this team lose a series, as long as they maintain their focus.

Oh My God is the last place team in the LPL at 0-3, but they have not had an easy schedule. They looked awful in their first series of the season, which was a sweep against Royal Never Give Up. OMG then put up a decent fight against Victory Five and they were able to force a game 3. SamD played as Kalista in game 2, but he was not able to get much of an early advantage, and V5 was unable to win team fights during late game. Most recently, EDward Gaming absolutely destroyed OMG in a sweep. Smlz continues to play as Aphelios, and he just hasn’t shown me enough with this champion. Aphelios is a very strong champion, but I think Oh My God is better off with Smlz playing someone that he is better with.

Anything can happen in League of Legends, but Top Esports -1.5 Map Handicap (-270) [2 UNITS] seems like a lock to me. TES has given me no reason to be skeptical of them, and they should continue to roll. I’m going to lock this one in for an extra unit because I am surprised to see the odds offering such value. Top Esports is the hottest team in the world, and the current odds put them at an implied probability of 72.6% to sweep. I project the true probability at around 80%, which means I see tremendous value at these odds. For DFS, I think knight (MID) continues to be a great play and has the highest ceiling of any mid laner. My favorite prop bet on MonkeyKnifeFight is to take Less – 12.5 Kills – JackeyLove (ADC) & Less – 5.5 Kills – icon (MID). I think these kill projections are too high on both sides in a series that should be a 2-0 sweep for TES. These games could be pretty quick too, which means JackeyLove may not get as many late game kill opportunities.

Bet: Top Esports -1.5 Map Handicap (-270) [2 UNITS]
Favorite DFS Play: knight (MID)
Favorite MKF Prop Bet: Less - 12.5 Kills - JackeyLove (ADC) & Less - 5.5 Kills - icon (MID)

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