LPL 2020 Summer Split – Betting & DFS Preview – Tuesday June 9th, 2020

LNG Esports vs. FunPlus Phoenix – 5:00AM ET

Top Esports vs. Rogue Warriors – 7:00AM ET

Betting Record (5-3, +0.94 units) – LPL 2020 Summer Split

LNG Esports vs. FunPlus Phoenix – 5:00AM ET

Moneyline Odds: FunPlus Phoenix (-2000) | LNG Esports (+800)

Map Handicap: FunPlus Phoenix -1.5 (-310) | LNG Esports +1.5 (+230)

Projected Lineups

LNG: TOP – chenlun17| JNG – Xx | MID – Maple | ADC – Light | SUP – Duan

FPX: TOP – Khan | JNG – Tian | MID – Doinb | ADC – Lwx | SUP – Crisp

 

FunPlus Phoenix is a huge favorite against LNG Esports in a match-up that should be an easy win for FPX. This team came just short of winning the Mid-Season Cup back in May in a 3-1 loss to Top Esports, and they have been putting up consistent performances ever since Khan took over in top lane. The current FPX roster is loaded with talent, and they look unstoppable when their teamwork is in sync. FunPlus Phoenix has shown a very meticulous style of gameplay recently, which means they aren’t making many mistakes. They tend to draft champions that will set them up for a late game win because that works the best with their ‘play-it-safe’ strategy. Once they have a lead, then they pretty much never look back.

We have already seen LNG Esports play once in the Summer Split when they got swept 2-0 by Suning Gaming. Suning played really well so it was no surprise to see LNG lose. I noted in my blog that Iwandy looked awful and was forcing fights without having teammates to back him up, and LNG has now changed to Duan at support which is good to see. I do think this LNG Esports team is undervalued in general, however they are still severely outmatched by FPX.

April 7th, 2020 was the last time these teams faced off, and FunPlus Phoenix swept 2-0.  LNG actually had a chance to take the first game, but they couldn’t finish FPX even with a dragon advantage and Baron, and they lost despite finishing with a 16-10 kill advantage. FunPlus Phoenix has improved since this series and I don’t expect LNG to come as close this time. The only possibility I see of FPX losing would be in the very 1st game if LNG somehow catches them sleeping, which is pretty unlikely. Lwx (ADC) is someone that I think will absolutely be in the winning DFS lineup, and I’ll take plenty of ownership of him as my STAR/CPT on Fanduel/Draftkings.  I lean towards FunPlus Phoenix Map Handicap -1.5, but I just don’t see any value on these lines. I actually really like the projections for FPX in the 2nd game, which should have less variance than game 1. If game 2 goes to plan for FunPlus Phoenix, then it will be a long, drawn-out game. I think there is a lot of upside on the kill total so my favorite bet is 2nd Map – Total Kills – Over 26.5 Kills (+105) [1 UNIT].

Bet:  2nd Map - Total Kills - Over 26.5 Kills (+105) [1 UNIT]
Favorite DFS Play: Lwx (ADC)

 

Top Esports vs. Rogue Warriors – 7:00AM ET

Moneyline Odds: Top Esports (-800) | Rogue Warriors (+500)

Map Handicap: Top Esports -1.5 (-180) | Rogue Warriors +1.5 (+150)

Projected Lineups

TES: TOP – 369| JNG – Karsa | MID – knight | ADC – QiuQiu | SUP – yuyanjia

RW: TOP – Crazy| JNG – Youdang | MID – Ruby | ADC – ZWuJi | SUP – Ley

 

No JackeyLove, no problem? Top Esports is without their star ADC in this match-up against Rogue Warriors. Hopefully JackeyLove gets well soon! Ever since signing to the team during the Spring Season, he has solidified Top Esports and helped them to become one of the best teams in the world, so he will be missed in this series. QiuQiu, who typically plays support, will take over as ADC. Top Esports has been steamrolling their competition recently. They won the Mid-Season Cup the last time we saw them play, and during the Spring Season they barely lost in the Finals to JD Gaming in a series that went all 5 games. But that was all with JackeyLove in the mix, so this team will look a bit different. They do still have knight in mid lane, which gives me plenty of confidence, because I think he is currently the best mid laner in the LPL.

Rogue Warriors finished 13th in the LPL 2020 Spring Season, although their 7-9 series record was the same as the 9th place team, Vici Gaming. They’ve added a new jungler, Youdang, who I think has potential, but I don’t expect him to do much in this match-up. We will see Ruby starting in mid lane, and Crazy back in top lane. Crazy has never impressed me so I don’t expect him to win this lane at all. The bottom lane for Rogue Warriors is decent, and they are in a favorable situation with JackeyLove not playing. I do expect Karsa to focus bottom lane the most since his teammates may need the help.

The last time these teams played was on April 6th, 2020, in a series that also did not feature JackeyLove. Rogue Warriors was able to win game 2, but Top Esports really had them figured out in game 3. I still project Top Esports as a heavy favorite in this spot, and I think that Top Esports -1.5 Map Handicap (-180) is an excellent bet. The JackeyLove news has already been priced in, which allows us to take TES at much better odds. This team is still way better than Rogue Warriors even without JackeyLove, and I expect at least 15 kills from knight. On Fanduel & Draftkings, QiuQiu (SUP) is priced as a cheap support option, but he will actually be playing ADC, so he has tremendous value and is a fantastic DFS play. My favorite prop bet on MonkeyKnifeFight is More – knight (MID) – 12.5 Kills and Less – ZWuJi (ADC) – 6.5 Kills.

Bet: Top Esports -1.5 Map Handicap (-180) [1 UNIT]
Favorite DFS Play: QiuQiu (SUP)
Favorite MKF Prop Bet: More - knight (MID) - 12.5 Kills and Less - ZWuJi (ADC) - 6.5 Kills

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