LEC Summer Split – Betting Preview – Friday June 26th, 2020

Week 3 of the LEC is here and we have another 5 game slate. MAD Lions find themselves tied for 1st place with Rogue at 4-1 after winning 4 games in a row. Some people may have underestimated MAD after they got demolished by G2 in week 1, but it has been smooth sailing since, including a convincing win over Fnatic. It has been frustrating to watch Fnatic hold Rekkles back in a nontraditional ADC role, although I guess it may make some sense in the current meta. He is so talented that it feels like a waste to not have him carry the team. I’m going to be focused on Team Vitality as a “sleeper” that I think is undervalued at the moment. They face Misfits and SK Gaming this weekend and they will need to win at least 1 game to help prove that they are no longer in the bottom tier of the LEC. I honestly think they have a legitimate chance to go 2-0, and at underdog odds, there is great value. My DFS lineups were decent for LEC Week 2, however I did end up losing units with my bets. I took a couple shots on some underdogs that didn’t come through, but anything can happen in the LEC, and those results won’t stop me from taking spots that I see as having a positive expected value.

 

Betting Record (14-11, -2.86 units) – LEC 2020 Summer Split

exceL Esports vs. Schalke 04 – 12:00AM ET

Misfits Gaming vs. Team Vitality – 1:00PM ET

SK Gaming vs. G2 Esports – 2:00PM ET

Origen vs. MAD Lions – 3:00PM ET

Rogue vs. Fnatic – 4:00PM ET

 

 

 

exceL Esports (1-4) vs. Schalke 04 (0-5) – 12:00AM ET

Moneyline Odds: exceL Esports (-175) | Schalke 04 (+125)

Bet: Schalke 04 Moneyline (+125) [1 UNIT]

Why I Like It: I feel like exceL is getting way too much credit for their win over SK Gaming. They made a ton of mistakes and still somehow lucked their way into that win, which was mainly thanks to them drafting Aphelios. These are currently the 2 worst teams in the LEC, and this could go either way. I prefer taking Schalke 04 at these odds.

DFS Play: Abbedagge (MID)

Why I Like It: Abbedagge is the least expensive mid laner on Fanduel, and 2nd most expensive on Draftkings. I wouldn’t even think about touching him on DK, but this is a match-up where he can definitely win his lane and score plenty of fantasy points, so I like taking one or two shots on him in Fanduel GPPs.

 

 

Misfits Gaming (2-3) vs. Team Vitality (2-3) – 1:00PM ET

Moneyline Odds: Misfits Gaming (-195) | Team Vitality (-140)

Bet: Team Vitality Moneyline (+140) [2 UNITS]

Why I Like It: Kobbe has proven that he is one of the best ADCs in the LEC, but I have doubts about his surrounding cast. On the other hand, Team Vitality has shown excellent teamwork and I think that they can compete with anybody right now. The current odds put them at an implied win probability of 41.67% which seems too low to me, so I am happy to bet them at +140.

DFS Play: Comp (ADC)

Why I Like It: It’s crucial that Team Vitality’s bottom lane does well if they want to win this match-up. Nji will hopefully put plenty of pressure on bottom lane to ensure that Comp gets more fed than Kobbe. Comp is a cheap ADC option that could potentially be used in 2 ADC lineups.

 

 

SK Gaming (3-2) vs. G2 Esports (3-2) – 2:00PM ET

Moneyline Odds: G2 Esports (-575) | SK Gaming (+345)

Bet: G2 Moneyline (-575) [2 UNITS]

Why I Like It: G2 appears to be back on track after losing 2 games in a row in Week 1. The biggest difference has been in their drafting, particularly Jankos switching up from LeeSin. G2 is still not in a comfortable position in terms of the standings, so I don’t expect any funny business with this one. G2 wins this match-up easily.

DFS Play: Caps (MID)

Why I Like It: Caps showed us against Rogue why he is one of the best in the world, and that high level of play should continue here. He is relatively cheap on Fanduel, so I love him as a play on that site. He is still a good play on Draftkings because he probably has the highest scoring potential on the slate. 

 

 

Origen (3-2) vs. MAD Lions (4-1) – 3:00PM ET

Moneyline Odds: Origen (-145) | MAD Lions (+105)

Bet: MAD Lions Moneyline (+105) [1 UNIT]

Why I Like It: This Origen team hasn’t been consistent enough for me to take them as the favorite here. MAD Lions have been hot lately and I think they are the real deal, so I’m riding with them to beat Origen.

DFS Play: TEAM MAD Lions 

Why I Like It: The fantasy scoring projections for either side don’t look overwhelming in this match-up, but I like taking MAD Lions in the team spot. They are cheap on Draftkings, but Origen is actually really cheap on Fanduel, so set your lineups accordingly.

 

 

Rogue (4-1) vs. Fnatic (3-2) – 4:00PM ET

Moneyline Odds: Fnatic (-195) | Rogue (+140)

Bet: Fnatic Moneyline (-195) [2 UNITS]

Why I Like It: Fnatic has had some questionable drafts, but they are an elite team and should win most games. Without a doubt it’s still Fnatic & G2 as the top 2 teams in the LEC come playoff time. I do like the way Rogue has played during the Summer Split, but they will likely struggle here. These odds are pretty reasonable for Fnatic.

DFS Play: Selfmade (JNG)

Why I Like It: Fnatic might continue to prioritize positions other than ADC as their carry, which could mean huge scoring from Selfmade. He’s an expensive option but I think he is definitely worth paying up for due to his massive upside.

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