Final Day of DreamHack Group Play – May 30, 2020

     DreamHack group play comes to an end on Saturday. Sadly, we’re going to have to wait until June 8th for playoffs to start. In the first match of the day Saturday, we’re going to have NiP and Ence fighting for the last Group D playoff spot. NaVi and Vitality have already secured two of the three spots. The next match will determine the fate of Group C. Spirit will be taking on Godsent, in a match that was originally scheduled for Wednesday, but had to be pushed back due to technical issues. The North American region will also be finishing play with a match between Gen.G and Cloud9. Friday was a pretty stagnant day for us as we finished 2-2 and lost 0.1 unit. We started off with an Ence loss to Vitality, before cashing on both the NaVi money line and spread. The end of the day was tough as we had 100 Thieves dominate the first map before losing on the tie breaking map. They had a 13-9 lead on the CT side of Nuke, but allowed EG to come back and eventually win in OT.

 

DreamHack Record: 21-18 (+4.02u) – Max bet: 2 units!

 

Ence (-150) vs Ninjas in Pyjamas (+120) – DreamHack EU – 8:00am EST

     Ence and NiP come in to this currently sitting in the bottom two spots of the group. NiP is one game behind Ence, but a win here would give them the head to head tie breaker for the final playoff spot. Neither of these teams looked great on Friday. Ence lost to Vitality and only averaged 7.5 rounds won over the two maps. NiP was blown out on their map pick of Overpass against NaVi, but put up a fight on Nuke before losing 16-14. Nuke was the first time I’ve seen anything from NiP at DreamHack, so they’ll be looking to carry that performance into this match against Ence.

     Ence will get things started by banning Vertigo. NiP will follow that up by banning Dust2. I would expect to see Ence pick Train for their map pick. I think Train will give NiP some troubles due to the technicality of each side of the map. Rotations and communication are key on Train. NiP will most likely pick Overpass for their map pick. They struggled there against NaVi, but seemed to find some sort of form towards the end of the match. Ence should use their second ban on Mirage. NiP would then have to chose between Nuke or Inferno for the tie breaking map. They will most likely pick Inferno even though they played Nuke on Thursday.

     This will be the third time that these teams have met since the end of March. The matches have all came about a month apart. The previous two series went the distance and were split 1-1 by each team. The most recent series came during Road to Rio group play. Each team won the others map pick in overtime before it moved to Inferno where Ence got crushed. The series previous to that one, Ence took the win on the Inferno tie breaker. My play for Friday is strictly based on form. These teams have shown they were on even playing ground, but after the roster moves I don’t believe that to be true. At least for the time being, NiP has certainly taken a step backwards. Ence seems to have made a stride forward, as they’re 5-1 since their roster move. I think Ence will be able to secure a spot in the playoffs on Friday.

Miner’s Money Pick: Ence (-150) *1.2u*
 
Spirit (-205) vs Godsent (+165) – DreamHack EU – 11:30am EST 

     Another match with playoff implications will take place on Saturday. Spirit comes in to this match with a 1-1 record while Godsent is 0-2. A spirit win will secure their playoffs spot, but a Godsent win would force a three way tie between Spirit, Godsent And Fnatic. In that case Fnatic would be eliminated since they have a -3 map differential. This match is a must win for Godsent, but I don’t know if that will be enough as I expect Spirit to be fired up. They should have beaten FaZe in their most recent match, but Mir lost power towards the end of the second map. They had to find a replacement before going on to lose in OT in both the second and third map.

     Godsent will start out by banning Mirage. Spirit will then ban Vertigo. I expect Godsent to go back to Nuke considering it has been there map pick in their only matches with Farlig. This may play in to Spirits hand considering they are on fire at Nuke. Spirit can really pick anything for their first map. They look extremely comfortable anywhere they play. They have a win percentage of at least 60% on every map other than Vertigo. They’ve also played an average of 12.5 times across those six maps in the last three months. They have a 6 map win streak on Train and picked that against FaZe so there’s a chance they go there. They’re also 11-2 on Inferno in their last 13 matches. Godsent is just 2-11 in their last 13 on Inferno. I think we’ll see Spirit pick either Inferno/Train depending on what they’re more confident in. Godsent should use their second ban on whichever remains between Train and Inferno. This will leave Spirit with a choice between Dust2 or Overpass. I would imagine we see Dust2.

     I wish the Team Spirit price wasn’t so high. I think Spirit will win this match more times than not, but I’m worried that Godsent will be more motivated to win. This match doesn’t mean much to Spirit as they lost their chance to claim the one seed after that sketchy FaZe match. A win against Godsent means they’ll play Mad Lions where a loss means they face Complexity. There’s a chance they favor playing Complexity and don’t even care to win this game. That’s not enough for me to back Godsent though. If Spirit shows up they should be the far superior team. Spirit has been playing extremely impressive counter strike. Godsent has been having some growing pains since the addition of Farlig, but in time the move should benefit them. The extra days to prepare should have helped them as well. I’ll be waiting to see the maps before I make a play, but I lean towards Spirit -1.5 to stay clear of the money line juice. They could take the match 2-0 if they show up. Be sure to follow @MoneyMiner_ on twitter as I’ll tweet my play once maps are set. Theres a chance I bypass a pregame play in order to just look for a live spot on Spirit.

Miner’s Money Pick: Spirit -1.5 (+140) *waiting to see map pool*

 

Gen.G (-145) vs Cloud9 (+115) – DreamHack NA – 3:00pm

     The last game of the day and DreamHack group play (NA/EU) is between Cloud9 and Gen.G. This game doesn’t have a ton of playoff ramifications other than seeding. This will be the fourth best of three series between these two teams since the start of April. Cloud9 has won two of those series, winning 5 maps compared to Gen.G’s 3 maps. Cloud9 was the only team to beat Gen.G at the Road to Rio. Gen.G won the match that carried more weight, knocking Cloud9 out of RTR playoffs. I expect a competitive last match before the start of playoffs.

     These teams should use the same bans they did in their last two meetings. Cloud9 will ban Mirage and Gen.G will ban Overpass. Cloud9 will have the first pick. They lost their map pick in each of the RTR meetings against Gen.G. The first meeting was on Train and the second on Inferno. It wouldn’t surprise me to see them switch things up again and pick Dust2. Similarly, Gen.G lost each of their last map picks against Cloud9. They picked and dropped both Nuke and Vertigo. This time around I expect them to pick Train. They’ve been able to beat Cloud9 on Train both of the times they played it. Narrowing down what will be the third map is extremely difficult because it’s tough to tell which way the map picks will go.

     Regardless of the map pool, I don’t think any team will gain too much of an edge over the other. Both of these teams have proven they can beat the other on just about any map. Even maps that have favored Gen.G, such as Train, were extremely close. Nuke and Vertigo, which have resulted in more Cloud9 wins, were competitive matches. It actually may be harder to continue to win as the other team is familiar with what you want to do on each map. These teams have just played each other a ton over the course of less than two months.

     We’re going to close out DreamHack NA group play with a Miner classic. I’ll be taking the over, as I see every map being extremely competitive. I’ll also be backing Cloud9 as an under dog. Cloud9 has a much higher ceiling than Gen.G. They also have a lower floor, but I don’t think that’s what matters in this match. Either way both of these teams will make the playoffs, so there isn’t too much pressure on this match. That should allow Cloud9 to be more comfortable playing their high risk high reward style of Counter Strike. Hopefully Cloud9 can win their map pick and secure us a free roll to send us out of DreamHack.

Miner’s Money Pick: Cloud9 (+120) & total maps o2.5 (+110)

Join the Discussion

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Back to top