ESL Road to Rio (NA) May, 1 2020

Liquid (-190) vs Furia (+150) 4:00pm EST

     #5 ranked Liquid comes into this matchup as a favorite against #11 ranked Furia. Bookmakers expect this match to be the most tightly contested North American match today. Furia has cruised to the top of their group with a perfect 3-0 record while Liquid sits at the bottom of a three way tie for second place. Liquid is coming into this one after an embarrassing 2-0 loss to Envy in a match that they came in to close to -1000 favorites. Liquid has to be pissed. They’ll be looking to right their mistakes in this one. Liquid is also only three points behind Furia, so a win today will put them into a tie for one of the three playoff spots. The loser of Envy/MIBR will fall into fourth place if Liquid can get the job done. All motivational advantages point to Liquid. Liquid and Furia have met twice before with Liquid leading the series three maps to two. Furia’s biggest map advantage is on Mirage, but their only loss there in the last three months come from Liquid. The only other map advantage they have is on overpass, but liquid has beaten them there too. Although this will be the most juice I’ve paid for in Rio, all signs are pointing to Liquid in this one and I’m fine laying the -190. If Liquid beat Envy in their last match I’m sure this line would favor Liquid even more. Give me the value and give me the better team.

Miner’s Money Pick: Liquid (-190)

Envy (+180) vs MIBR (-220) 4:00pm EST

     Envy has been off to a great start at the Road to Rio and is coming off a huge (+650) upset against Liquid. MIBR is also in good form but has only won as big favorites thus far.  It’s also worth mentioning that they got beat 2-0 by Liquid. I think these odds are reflecting that match a little too much though. I expected to see Envy odds closer to +250 so I will ultimately stay away from a side. I’m going to go back to my bread and butter and hit the over 2.5 maps in this one. This game means a lot for each squad as they are currently tied for second in their group. Liquid is also tied with them and playing the only team ahead of them, so tomorrows matches should shape the group going forward. I expect a maximum effort from each of these squads. They also played each other about a month ago at flashpoint which will give the teams plenty of tape to make adjustments off. I think Envy’s win over Liquid should give them the confidence boost to at least steal a map and book makers agree showing +1.5 at -200. MIBR holds an advantage on a majority of maps so I can’t see them getting shutout. I think this one will go to map three.

Miner’s Money Pick: Total maps o2.5 (-103)

YeaH! (+230) vs Bad News Bears (-300)

     In my opinion, this is the hardest match of the day to cap. Each of these teams are a tier below the rest of their group and come into this match 0-3. I think they each show up to this match extremely hungry and looking to prove that they belong more than the other. Each of these teams consistently use their first ban on Vertigo so it will be very interesting to see how the maps are chosen in this one. YeaH has a huge advantage at Mirage coming into this one on a 4-map win streak with the Bears being on a 6-map losing streak. The Bears biggest advantage comes on Train where they have won at an 83% clip compared to Yeah who only wins at a 33% rate. Based on the motivational factors for each team, I’m leaning towards o2.5 maps at the current price of +120. I also haven’t seen anything from the Bad News Bears that warrants them to be such a heavy favorite. The odds imply that they win this match 75% of the time and I just don’t agree with that. I’ll be waiting to see the map picks before I make any plays, but I’m leaning Yeah and the over. Check in with my twitter @MoneyMiner_ once the maps are chosen and I’ll let you know if those leans turn into plays!

Miner Leans: YeaH (+230) & total maps o2.5 (+120)

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