ESL Road to Rio – Final Day of EU Group Play – May 10, 2020

     European group play comes to a close on Sunday setting us up for playoffs starting on Tuesday! I’ll briefly touch upon each of the final matches and give you a pick! This blog won’t be as in depth as usual, but keep an eye on my twitter as I plan to play many potential live spots! I’ll tweet out the live plays as soon as I make them. Prepare for more in depth analyses next week during playoffs! Saturday was a good day for us finishing 3-1 (+1.85u). It’s exactly what we needed after a couple of losing days. We started the day hitting on the NiP/Fnatic over and followed that up with the Astralis/Vitality parlay. We ended the day with a push for a profit as Furia (+135) won 2-0, but the over lost (+100). I look to carry some of that momentum into today! All of the matches in the preview start at 12:30pm EST.

Copenhagen Flames (+220) vs Mousesports (-290) 

     Let me start with this, If you’re thinking about laying this juice on Mousesports, you’re crazy. Mouse has been a shell of themself throughout Rio and that showed in their 0-2 loss to Godsent with their Rio life on the line. Mouse is officially eliminated from the playoffs at this point so I wonder if they’ll even show up tomorrow. My play for this one is Copenhagen +1.5. They’re a perfect 6-0 on Inferno in group play thus far which includes wins over goliathes such as g2 and FaZe. They won at least one map in all of their group play matches and I don’t expect that to change against a Mouse team who has lost 6 straight on Inferno. Pair that with the fact that Mouse may not show up and it is easily my play of the day! Copenhagen +220 certainly offers value as well considering they should have a 1 map advantage to start. In this situation, Copenhagen certainly has more than a 30% chance to win. Its also worth noting that Copenhagen guarantee themself a playoff spot with a win.

Miner’s Money Picks: Cop Flames +1.5 (-150) *2u* & Flames (+220) *.9u*

 

Godsent (-180) vs Movistar Riders (+150)

     Much like the game above, this match features a team fighting to secure their playoff spot/seeding taking on a team that is already statistically eliminated. Godsent comes into this sitting at 4-2 and in a tie for second place with g2. If g2 somehow loses tomorrow, Godsent could leap frog them in order to secure a spot in the top half of the playoff bracket. Although g2 is a huge favorite(-550), I still expect to see max effort from Godsent. Movistar will ban Dust2 and Godsent will ban Mirage. Movistar will have to pick their map first and that would usually be Overpass, but they might steer away from that considering Godsent also picks Overpass first. Movistar’s map pick should come as Inferno as Godsent is on a 6-map losing streak and 1-8 over their last 9 matches on Inferno. If they stick with Overpass it will give Godsent a huge advantage and I will double down my bet instantly. This would give Godsent the chance to use their second ban on Inferno and control the whole map pool. If Movistar takes Inferno I would like to see Godsent take Nuke. I’ll also be looking to get more money on Godsent. Assuming they lose on Inferno and should have an advantage on the other two maps, Godsent live down 0-1 should offer a ton of value.

Miner’s Money Pick: Godsent (-180) *.5u* – 
  • Live double if map 1 Overpass

 

North (+442) vs G2 (-572)

Disclaimer: This play is not for the faint of heart. North and G2 come into this one separated by one win in group play. A win for North could squeak them into the playoffs and give G2 the boot, but let’s be realistic. That is just not going to happen. G2 knows they could potentially be eliminated so they will be focused. North is also playing with their coach, jumppy, filling in as their 5th player.  He will be replacing Kjaerbye for the second match in a row. This spells disaster for North, who at times looked like they were playing 4v5 in the match against Movistar. Jumppy went 17-39 in that match while the other 4 players were all positive. That type of play just won’t cut it against some of the best players in the world on this G2 squad. G2 also owns a win percentage advantage on every map other than dust2, but they have much more experience on dust than North. I understand its tough to risk so much money for just a potential return of 17.5%, but I see the bigger risk in this one laying the 1.5 maps. I don’t want things to get funky on one map and lose a bet over it as I don’t see any chance for North to win two. This is also coming from a guy who said he wouldn’t play anything past -220 in CSGO. I’m confident in G2 to get this one done.

Miner’s Money Pick: G2 ML look for live <-250

 

FaZe (-550) vs c0ntact (+420)

     Personally I won’t be making a play on this match, but if I had to, it would be on the over at +180. I think this would be a good play in a match that carried a little more weight, but c0ntact is 0-6 and really has no reason to show up. C0ntact has been able to find success on Inferno throughout Rio group play (3-1) while FaZe is 1-2 there over the same span. Other then that the match will be all FaZe. FaZe is a perfect 6-0 and would certainly fight to be the only European team to finish group play undefeated. Although, being undefeated won’t earn them anything special in terms of playoffs, so they may be looking ahead to playoffs. I don’t know and that’s why I’ll be laying off this game as I question where each teams head is at. If you make a play, good luck!

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