ESL Road to Rio (EU/NA) – May 3, 2020

     Saturday was a decent day for us. Ninjas in Pajamas won a three map contest against Complexity. Complexity showed more resilience than I thought they would. Fnatic lost on to Vitality on the third map. Zywoo put the team on his back in that one finishing with a 94-51 K/D! The 100Thieves double down saved us. I originally got them at -189 but the lined dropped to +100 just before the match started, which had to be a double down for value purposes. They won 2-0. We finished the day up 0.8 units. I’ll be staying away from the CIS region today unless NaVi goes down early to Virtus.Pro. In that case I’ll be looking to play NaVi live at any price less than -200. They are clearly the best team in CIS and nobody is close.

Mousesports (-107) vs. g2 (-123)

     I was an advocate for Mouse before their previous match against Faze. After losing their first two games at the Road to Rio I expected them to find their form in a top 10 matchup. That wasn’t the case, Mouse lost 2-0 and weren’t competitive for a majority of the match. For me, this isn’t a play on g2, but a fade of Mouse. Their play has been off at the Road to Rio and I think there’s issues in the Mouse camp. G2 comes into this one at 3-1 and looks to cement themself in the top three with a big win.

Miner’s Money Pick: g2 (-123)

Copenhagen Flames (-106) vs. Movistar Riders (-124)

     Movistar and Copenhagen come into this match in a tie for the final playoff qualifying spot. Each of these teams are 2-2 in group play, but Copenhagen currently has the better round differential at +12 compared to Maovistar’s -25. The winner of this match will gain a huge advantage in the playoff race. Moivstar started Rio with a huge upset win against Mousesports followed by a win against c0ntact. The win against Mouse intrigued me, I became curious to see if Movistar would compete with other top teams. That was the case as they’ve dropped back to back series against Faze and g2. Copenhagen on the other hand has impressed me. They started group play with a win against c0ntact. That was followed up by three map loses to g2 and Godsent. Copenhagen had multiple opportunities to win each of those matches, but in the end the skill gap showed in gunfights. Godsent won their most recent match 2-0 against North. Movistar aren’t in the same tier as g2 or Godsent, so if Copenhagen comes out in recent form they should win the series.

Miner’s Money Pick: Copenhagen Flames (-106)

Envy (-142) vs. Bad News Bears (+112)

     Let me just start by saying that I think this line is extremely disrespectful to Envy. The Bad News Bears have had one of the worst performances in Rio thus far. BNB is 1-3 in group play with their only win coming against Yeah!, who is 0-4 in the group. Prior to the match against YeaH!, BNB lost back to back 2-0 series against MIBR and Furia. The Bad News Bears beat Envy in their last match about a month ago. I think the result of that match is reflected in the line. I don’t think it should be. Since the loss, Envy took a map from both MIBR and Furia. Envy also had a huge upset (+650) against Liquid, as well as a win against Yeah!. Each of those games were won 2-0. I have been much more impressed with Envy than BNB through group play. I have no problem laying the -140 juice in this one.

Miner’s Money Picks: Envy (-142) 

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