ESL Road to Rio (EU) Mid Day Slate – April 28, 2020

Vitality (+280) vs Astralis (-370) 12:30pm EST

The #3 ranked team in the world, Astralis, come into this matchup against #9 ranked Vitality as a heavy favorite. These teams have matched up in four times in best of three series in the past, with Astralis leading the series 3 wins to 1. Two of those four matchups have gone to the third map. Each of these teams come into this matchup with a 1-1 record in Road to Rio group play. Each team has also won three maps and lost three maps. The Astralis loss came against Fnatic while Vitality lost to Ninjas in Pajamas. In my opinion, Astalis was less competitive in their loss than Vitality.

My play for this matchup will be made on the total for number of maps played. I expect this one to go to a third map and I’m thrilled to see +120 for over 2.5 maps. These two teams had a three map battle about a month ago in ESL Pro League play. Vitality has been able to find success against Astralis on Overpass and expect them to try to replicate that today with their map pick. If Astralis bans overpass I think Vitality would have an edge on Mirage so don’t be surprised to see Vitality to steal a map. I’ll also be sprinkling Vitality to win. It’s always tough to bet against Astralis, but with +280 odds its implied that Vitality only wins this match 26.5% of the time. I believe that number should be closer to 33% so there is a slight edge taking Vitality.

Miner’s Money Pick: Total maps o2.5 (+120)

 

Heretics (+150) vs Complexity (-180) 12:30pm EST

The matchup between Heretics and Complexity is an interesting one. Heretics comes into this one a perfect 2-0 at the Road to Rio while Complexity is on the opposite end at 0-2. Heretics found wins against Dignitas and Ence who are a tier above Heretics, although they are towards the bottom of said tier. Each of the complexity losses come in three map showdowns against Vitality and Astralis. Complexity was competitive which is sometimes all you can ask for when you’re playing top tier teams such as Astralis.

The price on this match interests me. I feel like we are getting some recency bias reflected in this line based on the undefeated/defeated records thus far in the tourney. Heretics is still playing out of their league and Complexity is a team that has proven they can play with the best. Complexity is also reeling for a win. This matchup is. an absolute must for them. Heretics will pick either Dust2 or Nuke and they will have an advantage over Complexity on their pick, but I believe that will be it. I see a desperate Complexity winning this match, but I think Heretics is able to take a map.

Miner’s Money Picks: Complexity (-180) & total maps o2.5 (-110)  

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