ESL Road to Rio (EU) – May 1, 2020

     Thursday was another good day for us. We started off slow losing the over in the Gambit/Spirit match. Copenhagen Flames (+170) beat north by a score of 2-0, so we hit the big plus money play but missed the over on that match as well. Astralis/NiP went to a third map cashing the over for us but NiP was eventually bested by a few rounds. We finished the day strong with a perfect cap of the Cloud9/Gen.G matchup, hitting both the over and Cloud9 as a dog. At the end of the day we finished up 2.08 units! I’ll be staying away from the CIS region but have plenty of plays for the European and North American regions. Be sure to look for the North American blog in the morning!

Mousesports (-105) vs Faze (-125) 12:30pm EST

     This is easily the match of the day, as we have #4 ranked Mousesports taking on #8 ranked Faze. Mouse has looked shaky thus far in Rio, dropping their first two matches against inferior opponents. They were able to get a notch in the win column in their last match, although they did drop a map to c0ntact. Faze comes into this match sitting in first place in the Group B standings at a perfect 3-0. Based on play in Rio I understand why bookmakers have made Faze a short favorite, but Faze is 0-4 against Mouse in best of three series. I think this line is influenced by recency bias. Mouse started this tournament a little sleepy after losing the ESL pro league championship to Fnatic. I think they were overlooking their opponents and it came back to haunt them. Big time players show up for big time games and that’s exactly what this match is. Mouse pulling off this upset will go a long way in group standings, so I consider it a must win for Mouse. At this point Faze can afford a loss, but I expect them to come into this game fired up and looking to get their first win against Mouse. These teams met twice within the last month so they are familiar with what each other want to do. Each of these last two matchups went to a third map and I expect to see the same thing tomorrow. I’ll be doubling down on Mouse as I see a ton of value on their line. They are 4-0 against Faze and the line implies they only win this match 51% of the time. I expect to see Mouse return to form tomorrow.

Miner’s Money Picks: Mousesports *2u* (-105) & total maps o2.5 (-102)

Ence (-180) vs Dignitas (+150) 12:30pm EST

     I feel like my picks are starting to sound like a broken record. I told myself I’m going to stop betting both a side and a total, but here we go again. This match is an interesting one. Ence’s best player, Allu, was kicked from this Dignitas squad so I expect this match to be personal for him. On top of that, these two teams played yesterday in a best of one invitational match. Ence took the win by a score of 16-11. I expected Ence to be favorites after winning yesterday, but I don’t see them winning this matchup 65% of the time in a best of three series. These two teams are extremely even. They’re both very experienced teams that are able to make adjustments on the fly. They both sit towards the bottom of their group with a 1-3 record but it is clear that they can each compete with the best as their only win is against the defending champs, Fnatic. I can’t see either team winning by a score of 2-0 so I will be doubling down on the over in this one. Ence should continue to use their first ban on vertigo and Dignitas will continue to ban Mirage. This will leave Dignitas to pick nuke and Ence is 0-6 on nuke over the last three months. Ence should chose train as their map and they have a huge advantage there as Dignitas is 2-5 over the last three months. Expect to see a 1-1 score and a third map. This is where I see value on Dignitas. They hold an advantage over Ence in three of the remaining four maps. As long as they use their ban on Dust2, I would make Dignitas a slight favorite going into the third map. The line being +150 is just too much value for me to pass up. I love the over and favor Dignitas to win the series 2-1.

Miner’s Money Picks: Dignitas (+150) & o2.5 maps *2u* (+107)

Join the Discussion

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Back to top