ESL Road to Rio (EU) Betting Preview – April 29, 2020

     The Wednesday slate for ESL Road to Rio is littered with value. I’ve made plays in four different matchups but before diving in let’s recap picks from Tuesday. Tuesday was a good day in the sense of risk but not as much in the sense of reward. NiP was able to beat Ence in the morning, but Fnatic was unable to cover -1.5 against Dignitas who won outright. I also had Copenhagen Flames(+200) to win against Godsent as well as over 2.5 maps(+120). The Flames were able to take map 1 to ensure both bets could not lose but eventually lost map three by a score of 16-14. The rest of the tournament was a wash for me as Astralis made quick work of Vitality but Complexity and Heratics went over their match total to even me out. All in all I lost less than a unit throughout the day. We’ll make that back today.

Godsent (+150) vs North (-180) 9:00am EST

     Godsent and North come into this matchup in similar form. Godsent is the 18th ranked team in the world and North comes in ranking 21st. Each of these teams have a 1-1 record through group play and currently sit in a 4-way tie for the bottom two playoff spots. I expect a motivated match because the other two teams that are apart of the 4-way tie are squaring off at the same time. Winners of these matchups will do well to separate themself from the bottom half of the group. Over’s at Road to Rio having been cashing at a 62% clip as matches have been tightly contested. I expect this match to follow that trend. I also think North’s recent win over Mousesport is causing this line to be inflated. This is creating value on Godsent. I think they win this match more than a 40% of the time.

Miner’s Money Picks: Godsent (+150) & Total maps o2.5 (+105)

Fnatic (-360) vs Heratics (+270) 12:30pm EST

     At a record of 1-2, Fnatic is still the best team in this tournament. If they had a few rounds go their way they could easily be sitting atop the group at 3-0, but this is counterstrike and not everything goes your way. Heratics comes into this game sitting in a tie for the top spot with the perfect 3-0 record. This will be one of the best chances for Fnatic to close the gap between themself and the top. They have to win this match to stay relevant and I expect to see them out for blood after the dramatic loss to Dignitas. Fnatic is a different weight class than Heratics so I’ll be laying the -1.5 maps in hope to see Fnatic win 2-0. If Heratics pulls out a win on the first map I will be doubling down on Fnatic live. Book it. The champs are hungry.

Miner’s Money Pick: Fnatic -1.5 (-110)

Dignitas (+200) vs Vitality (-243) 12:30pm EST

     It’s funny how things can change so much day to day. Yesterday I faded Dignitas after accusing them for being out of their prime and then they beat the raining champs in a match they could have won by a score of 2-0. The first two maps went to overtime with one being taken by Fnatic and the other by Dignitas. Dignitas controlled the third map eventually beating the champs. If Dignitas can return today in similar form, I don’t think Vitality will have any answers. Dignitas played a perfect match against Fnatic and if they can replicate that style of game play I expect them to win a lot of matches in this qualifier. This is a can’t lose for both teams but I expect the maturity of Dignitas to prevail in the end. It’s also worth noting that Vitality has been a shell of themself lately going 1-4 over their last 5 matches.

Miner’s Money Pick: Dignitas (+200)

Ence (+120) vs. Complexity (-150) 12:30pm EST

According to bookmakers, Ence and Complexity are the most even matchup of the day. Complexity has the worst round differential of the European Road to Rio group play thus far. Ence has the second worst differential but was able to pull off a big upset win over Fnatic in their first match. That win has given them some life to making the playoffs although it won’t be easy for them to win any tie breakers. That being said, I would give a slight motivational edge to Ence. The sequence of map picking will be very interesting considering both team uses their first ban for Vertigo more than 50% of the time. I’ll be curious to see if Ence veers away from that strategy considering they are on a 5-map losing streak on Nuke. These teams also share a common first pick map in Mirage. It’ll be very interesting to see how things shake out and I would suggest waiting to see the maps before you place any wagers on a side. I will be making another investment on an over as I expect to see the trend of competitive matches ending on map three continue. I also lean Ence here as I think they have been in better form than Complexity and have a slight motivational edge but I’ll be waiting to see map choices before locking that play.

Miner’s Money Pick: Total maps o2.5 (-110) & *maybe* Ence (+120) 

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