ESL Road to Rio (CIS/EU) Betting Preview – April 30, 2020

     Wednesday was a great day for the blog! The Godsent upset (+150) and over (+105) got us to a hot start in the early slate. Fnatic dropped the first map but the live double down came at a great price and they got the job done in the long run. Dignitas lost but complexity/ence was able to reach the third map to cash the over. We finished up 3.95 units in the European slate. I used some of those winnings to invest in Envy (+650) and the over (+180). Envy took the match 2-0 which paid out nicely. I’ll make sure to post a North American blog in the morning so be on the lookout for that! **Overs continue to cash as five of six matches today went to a third map (67% in Rio).

Gambit Youngsters (+220) vs. Spirit (-280) – 9:00am EST

     The CIS region of Road to Rio kicks off in the morning with three group A matches. The only match worth a pregame bet is between Gambit Youngsters and Spirit, although I’ll be looking at forZe live if they go down early. Gambit Youngsters and Spirit is the most even of these matches according to the bookmakers. Gambit and Spirit have matched up three times over the last two months with Spirit winning all of those matches. Gambit was able to steal a map and force the tie breaker in two of those matches. I expect them to do the same in their first match of group play. The first game sets the tone so I expect both of these teams to be motivated to win. Gambit holds an advantage in both Overpass and Vertigo so I’m thinking they’ll be able to steal one of those maps. Spirit is well versed in the rest of the maps so I expect them to be able to take at least one as well. Expect to see a third map in a closely contested matchup.

Miner’s Money Pick: Total Maps o2.5 (-102)

Ninjas in Pajamas (+250) vs. Astralis (-330) – 12:30pm EST

     The biggest match of the day is a showdown between Ninjas in Pajamas and Astralis. You’ll want to find a stream for this match as each of these teams come into this match with great form. NiP currently sits atop of the group with a perfect 3-0 record but Astralis is only one game behind. This match will shape the group placing for the rest of the tournament. Expect two extremely motivated and focused squads. Each team should stick to their trends so Dust2 and Mirage should be the first bans. This will give Astralis the opportunity to pick nuke, in which they hold a small advantage over NiP. NiP will be able to pick Vertigo which has given Astralis issue as of late. I’ll definitely be going back to the well on this one as overs have continued to smash, hitting at a 67% clip throughout the tournament. Most of these overs come at plus money odds as well. I’ll also be making an investment on NiP as I see value at the current price. The odds imply NiP has only a 28% chance to win this game. That is ASININE. You could argue that NiP is in the best form of the tourney so far. Astralis is certainly a heavy weight, but with how NiP has been executing their strategy, I see them winning this match closer to 40% of the time.

Miner’s Money Picks: Ninjas in Pajamas (+250) & total maps o2.5 (+125)

Copenhagen Flames (+170) vs. North (-210) – 12:30pm EST

     Copenhagen fell just short of the upset against g2 yesterday after winning the opening map. North fell to Godsent by a score of 2-1 although Godsent was clearly the better team throughout the match. These teams come into this match with a record of 1-2 in group play. They sit in a 3-way tie with Mousesports for 5th place, with the top 4 teams in the group making the playoffs. The trend of playing overs in closely contested and important matches has been paying off for me thus far and this game fits the trend perfectly. This match also shapes up nicely for a three map showdown. Copenhagen consistently uses their first ban on Vertigo, which happens to be North’s best map. North should continue to ban Train but that has little effect on the Flames who will most likely pick Inferno. The Flames should take down the win on that map as North is lacking experience playing there recently. With Vertigo banned, I expect north to chose either Dust2 or Nuke as Copenhagen has struggled on both of those maps. The third map pick will be interesting but it seems like neither team will be too strong on it. Based on my confidence in the Flames on Inferno I think there is value at the current odds. This game is closer to a coin flip to me. I think we’re seeing some line shading towards North due to their upset over Mouse. I exploited that value against Godsent and plan to do the same here.

Miner’s Money Picks: Copenhagen Flames (+170) & total maps o2.5 (+113)

LIVE SPOTS: 

     I’ll be looking to target g2 in a live spot against Movistar. Movistar has been surprising so far. They upset Mouse in their first matchup and almost did it again against Faze in their last match. If they steal the first map ill be making an investment in g2 as I see them in another weight class. It worked with faze, although it was a sweater, I’ll be going back to the well.

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