DreamHack Masters (NA/EU) – May 23, 2020

DreamHack Record: 8-6 (+0.55u)

Mousesports (-160) vs BiG (+130) – DreamHack EU – 8:00am

     Mousesports have been impossible to read after placing second in the ESL Pro League. They show spurts of their brilliance, but their overall play has been nothing short of a disappointment. They are 3-5 since the start of Rio.  After starting 0-1 at DreamHack the pressure will certainly be on them to win this match against BiG. BiG should also be highly motivated as a win here would secure them a spot in the playoffs. They took a scrappy win over Mad Lions in their first match. BiG played well, but I didn’t see anything too special from them. I think the Mad Lions looked a little a rusty after having the last month off. BiG will be able to prove if they are legit in this one.

     Big will start out by banning Train and Mouse will follow that by banning Overpass. I hope they stray away from that and take Mirage away from Big because I don’t think Big would in turn pick Overpass. In reality, Mirage will most likely be the first map. Big is extremely comfortable on Mirage and its not a map that Mouse plays often. I wouldn’t count Mouse out on Mirage though. Mirage is a scrimmy map that will give an edge to those with better duelers. I think Mouse will then go back to Dust2 even though they lost to Complexity there on Friday. Mouse was surprised by Complexity who developed a perfect game plan against them. I think Big will use their second ban on Vertigo which will be followed by Mouse banning Inferno. I believe Mouse would have the edge on Nuke, but winning the knife round to claim CT will be huge.

     This is a tough match for me to cap. I would like to say that the map pool favors BiG considering each teams form, but I don’t think this Mouse form will last. They have too much talent and experience to continue to play at such a low level. If they turn it on their skill gap would certainly show on maps such as Mirage and Dust2. I think they know they have to make playoffs after such a bad placement in Rio and winning this match will carry major weight in doing so. A loss to BiG would mean one less playoff spot. It’s also worth noting that Mouse haven’t dropped back to back series since the first two games of Rio. I’m going to back Mouse, but I will not be paying the juice. I will be using them as one half of a two team parlay along with Team Liquid against MiBR (preview at bottom). 

Miner’s Money Pick: Mousesports & Liquid parlay (+130) *1.5 units*

 

Mad Lions (-130) vs Complexity (+100) – DreamHack EU – 11:30am EST

     We have two teams who prepared for DreamHack in the exact opposite ways meeting in the mid day time slot. Complexity comes in to this one after competing in Road to Rio. They faced inevitable elimination at Rio on the back end of the event, but immediately started play Home Sweet Home Cup 3 and 4. They took first place in each of those events. Complexity prepared a gameplay and executed it too perfection to get the win against Mousesports. The Mad Lions hadn’t played a competitive match since they won Flashpoint 1 just over a month ago. They came out hot against Big winning Big’s pick of Mirage before dropping their pick and the tie breaker. Once Big figured out Mad Lions game plan, the Mad Lions had a tough time making adjustments. Their comfort levels just weren’t what they were at Flashpoint. 

     To start things off Complexity will ban Overpass and Mad Lions will ban Inferno. Complexity will pick either Dust2 or Mirage and the Mad Lions will most likely pick Nuke. I’d also expect to see the third map end up being Dust2 or Mirage depending on which is picked first.

     My play on this one has to be Complexity and I was thrilled to see them as the underdog. This map pool doesn’t favor either team too heavily, so I think the the difference maker will be the current form of each of these teams. The Mad Lions will compete, but Complexity looked dominant against Mouse and that’s not an easy task. The team was hitting shots, executing their game plan and working fluently as a unit. Since placing this bet earlier in the afternoon, Complexity has moved from +100 to -135. The line movement gives me a bit more confidence in this play.

Miner’s Money Pick: Complexity (+100) *2 units*

Liquid (-215) vs MiBR (+175) – DreamHack NA – 3:00pm EST

* I’m going to keep this brief! I may add to it before the game tomorrow though.*

     Liquid has dominated MiBR over the past year. The last time MiBR won a map was literally over a year ago. In that time, Liquid has beat them on 9 maps, winning 4 best of three events. MiBR is averaging just about 10 rounds won per map against Liquid in that year. Liquid has looked shaky as of late, but they have their backs against the wall in this one. A loss for Liquid guarantees they don’t make the playoffs, while a win would put them in a tie with Chaos and MiBR for the last two spots. MiBR’s play style just doesn’t seem to work against Liquid. TrK has also been struggling to carry his weight for MiBR and I expect Liquid to exploit that. All signs point to Liquid winning this one. As mentioned above, I’ll be partying it with Mouse to avoid juice on both bets. *Update: I’ll be looking for a live Liquid play around -150 early in the first map. Hopefully make some of the Mouse money back.*

Miner’s Money Pick: Liquid & Mouse Parlay (+130) *1.5 units*

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