DreamHack Masters – May 29, 2020

     DreamHack is coming towards its end with teams finishing play on Friday and Saturday. We still have a couple days of stacked matches with Vitality taking on Ence and NiP facing off against NaVi on Friday. 100 Thieves will also be playing again. They’ll be taking on Evil Geniuses in both of the teams last match. Thursday was an alright day for us, but was somewhat disappointing. We started off with an easy Vitality win. I also tweeted out my play on Vitality map 2 money line, which ended up cashing. Be sure to follow @MoneyMiner_ on twitter for all of my live spots. After starting strong, we lost on Navi and Cloud9. The Cloud9 match was extremely frustrating as they lost first map 14-16. They also passed on their regular insta ban, which 100T in turn punished them for. They lost that map 16-3. We finished the day at 2-2, but finished -1.35 units since we went big on Cloud9.

DreamHack Record 19-16 (+4.12u) – Max Bet: 2 Units!

 

Vitality (-115) vs Ence (-115) – DreamHack EU – 8:00am EST

     Vitality and Ence both enter this match coming off of a win on Thursday. Vitality destroyed NiP in a match that wasn’t competitive after the opening pistol round. Ence was able to secure a win over NaVi as a short underdog. They took their map pick of Train 16-12 ,before winning Dust2 16-14. This match is much more important for Vitality as they come in at 1-1 compared to Ence who is 1-0. A second win for either of these teams will be enough to secure themself a playoff spot. A loss for Vitality will hurt their chances, as they would finish in 3rd at best or face tie breakers. Before matches were played on Thursday Ence was a short underdog (+110), but after seeing both teams play, bookmakers felt the need to adjust.

     Ence will get the ball rolling by banning Vertigo. This will be followed up by Vitality banning Train. Train is the regular first pick for Ence, but I expect them to pick Mirage since Train will be off the board. Vitality has a difficult decision for their pick. They usually go with Dust2, but Ence is on a 5 map Dust2 winning streak that includes a win over NaVi. Vitality’s other option would be to pick Nuke, but they are just 5-6 there over the course of the last three months. I would expect to see Ence use their second ban on Inferno. Vitality should then use their ban on Overpass, which will leave Nuke/Dust2 as the tie breaking map. Since the map pool plays out like this, Vitality should chose Dust2 as their pick. If they chose Nuke, it will guarantee they start on the T side, but there’s a chance they could start on CT if Nuke is the tie-breaker.

     I was very impressed with what I saw from Ence against NaVi. The addition of Jamppi seemed to help them a ton. The kill distribution was even across the Ence roster and the team was strategically sound. Vitality also looked impressive on Thursday, but I think that had more to do with the horrible play from NiP. Vitality struggles to close out maps as they sometimes rely on Zywoo too heavily. Ence was able to win both Mirage and Nuke handily when these two teams met in Road to Rio. I think the addition of Jamppi has made them better since then. This will be Jampii’s 5th match with Ence and they are a perfect 5-0 in those matches. I expect that to keep rolling in this one. Bookmakers seem to agree too. The line adjustment from an underdog to a pickem shows confidence in Ence.

Miner’s Money Pick: Ence (-115) *1.15u*

 

NaVi (-155) vs NiP (+125) – DreamHack EU – 11:30am EST

     I need to start this preview out with an apology for not getting it out earlier. I personally bet NaVi at -155 before any of the matches started on Thursday. At the conclusion of NiP’s blowout loss to Vitality, the line instantly moved closer to -200 and sits at -195 at the time of writing. I understand the line movement, but also don’t have a ton of confidence in NaVi. They’ve started slow in all of their matches and look unprepared for what they are going to face. NiP looks like they have a ton of problems due to the release of Lekro, so I won’t be backing them until they figure things out with Hampus. I love my NaVi play at -155, but -200 may be a little steep.

     NiP will start things out by Banning Dust2. They didn’t do that against Vitality and got punished for it. They won’t make that same mistake against a NaVi squad who’s best map is Dust2. NaVi will in turn ban NiP’s best map, Vertigo. NiP’s first map pick should come in on Overpass. NaVi will follow that up by picking Nuke. NiP should use their second ban on Train which will force NaVi to pick between Inferno or Mirage as the tie breaking map.

     I find myself saying the same thing I said about Thursday’s NiP match. If they didn’t make any roster moves I would most likely be riding them, especially at the current prices. This is not the case though and NiP looked horrible in their first match without Lekro. I don’t think it will get any easier for NiP in this one. NaVi can definitely compete on Overpass and should dominate NiP on Nuke. NiP usually struggles on Nuke as it is, so with a new player/IGL they really shouldn’t have a chance. I would be hesitant to back NaVi at -200. The last map being either Mirage/Inferno makes things difficult for them if they get there. In order for them to get there, NiP will have to steal one of the first two maps and I don’t see that happening after watching their match against Vitality. The safer play in this one is to back NaVi at -1.5 in order to avoid the money line juice, especially when considering the danger of map 3 being a map NaVi isn’t comfortable on.

Miner’s Money Pick: NaVi (-155) *1.55u* & NaVi -1.5 (+155)

 

100 Thieves (-125) vs Evil Geniuses (-105) – DreamHack NA – 3:00pm EST

     100 Thieves and Evil Geniuses will be meeting to finish up their group play for DreamHack NA. This match matters a lot more for 100 Thieves than it does Evil Geniuses. Even if EG win this game, they don’t have a chance to make playoffs.  100 Thieves will be looking to go undefeated in group play and secure the one seed. The one seed in NA is extremely important as they only have one match before making the grand final. I don’t think Evil Geniuses head will be in it as their coach has already been talking about preparing for Blast Premier which starts on Monday.

      I’ll be making a play on 100 Thieves to win a little more than a unit. They’ve looked very strong against Gen.G and Cloud9. Each of those teams also were able to beat EG, but obviously that’s not a direct correlation to 100 Thieves success. I like the motivational edge in this one, but 100 Thieves have also won all three series against EG within the last three months. All of the series were close, but I don’t think EG will care to compete in this one.

Miner’s Money Pick: 100 Thieves (-125) *1.5 units*

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