DreamHack Masters – May 26, 2020

     The first day of the new groups were phenomenal for us. We started the week off with a 4-2 day, netting +4.17 units, while making only +EV plays. We started the day off nailing the Spirit upset (+190), but they won in 2-0 fashion which lost us the over. We then hit on the Godsent/FaZe over, but missed on the Godsent money line. We finished the day with my favorite match, Cloud9 versus Evil Geniuses. Cloud9 won on Dust2, lost on Nuke and won Train to win the series 2-1. We cashed the over (+100) and Cloud9 money line (+210) in that one. We should continue to build on that with another great card today!

DreamHack Record: 14-9 (+6.22u)

 

FaZe (-195) vs Spirit (+160) – DreamHack EU – 8:00am EST

     We get the day started with an absolute treat in the early time slot. FaZe and Spirit come in to this one after wins in the first games of group play. The winner of this match will secure their spot in the playoffs in just the second game. I think that will be on the front of the mind of Team Spirit, but FaZe may be more focused on getting Bymas comfortable. He looked like a liability in much of their match against Godsent. Bymas has a ton of gun skill and quick flick ability, but his Counter Strike IQ has a lot to be desired. You could see his lack of experience any time his team found themself at a man disadvantage. FaZe was able to hide much of that vulnerability on the back of their star studded cast, but may struggle to do the same against Spirit. Spirit is humming right now. They have played a ton of Counter Strike in the last three months and have their team working as a cohesive unit. I’m curious to see if they game plan to attack Bymas as he struggled in tactical situations. 

     Spirit will most likely stray away from using their first ban on Vertigo, knowing FaZe uses Vertigo as their first ban every match. I would like to see Spirit use their ban on Mirage just to take away FaZe’s best map. I also think it would be best for Spirit to force FaZe to play on Inferno, as they struggled to defend there against Godsent. This will force FaZe to use their first pick on either Dust2 or Nuke. They struggled on the T side of Nuke, so picking Nuke would present them with a disadvantage to start. I expect them to pick Dust2 for that reason. Spirit will then ban Overpass and leave FaZe with either Train or Nuke. I would expect to see Nuke in that situation.

     The maps don’t paint the clearest of pictures for me. I think Spirit has to be favored on Inferno due to the fact that FaZe can only use 2 to defend B. They have to use the rotation guy to help Bymas and Broky to defend A or they risk A falling easily if Bymas gets caught out. FaZe would be a short favorite on Dust2, but Dust2 is a map Spirit is very comfortable on. They use it as their first pick almost 40% of the time, playing the map 20 times in the last three months. Spirit will have to be a heavy favorite if we see it make it to Nuke. They dominated Fnatic in 16-2 fashion there on Monday. FaZe had a strong CT side of Nuke going up 11-4 by half time against Godsent. They forced Bymas to just play ramp, since Godsent wasn’t attacking there he was able to just take space and gain information. Spirit should have seen that and be ready to attack ramp if need be. FaZe also looked helpless on the T side as they let Godsent bring the score back to 12-11. They struggle to make entries on the bomb sites because it’s as if they were playing with only four guys. Bymas will be a stud once he has experience, but until then I see him as a liability. I’ll be backing Spirit as I see them as more of a complete team. They should embrace the challenge in such a big match against the infamous FaZe clan. The Spirit line had fallen from +180 to +160 after the conclusion of Monday’s matches. I expect book makers noticed the FaZe flaws as well.

Miner’s Money Pick: Spirit (+160) *1.25u*

 

Fnatic (-300) vs Godsent (+230) – DreamHack EU – 11:30am EST

     The middle time slot welcomes the two losers of European Group C. Fnatic suffered a 2-0 defeat to Spirit and Godsent lost 2-1 to FaZe. Fnatic started the group off with an embarrassing 16-2 loss on Nuke. They battled on Inferno, but ultimately collapsed due to economy struggles on their CT half. As I mentioned earlier, the Spirit form was also superb. Godsent came out with slow starts on all of the maps they played against FaZe. They were down 11-4 on Nuke and 10-5 on both Dust2 and Inferno. They managed to make the first two maps in to a dog fight before splitting 1-1. Once Farlig is comfortable in his role I would expect Godsent to improve mightily. Farlig is extremely skilled with the AWP and there will always be growing pains for a team that is playing with their AWPer for the first time. I think we’ll see Godsent get better in every series they play.

     Godsent will use their first ban on Mirage. This will be followed up by Fnatic banning Vertigo. I think we should see Godsent go right back to Nuke for their map pick. Fnatic allowed Spirit to put up 12 rounds on their T side, so Godsent should find a much better start than they did against FaZe. The teams should also be more comfortable playing with Farlig there. Fnatic should go back to their bread and butter pick of Inferno. Now I know what you’re thinking, “Farlig the Inferno god!”, but I don’t think he will be enough against Fnatic. Prior to Godsent beating FaZe on Inferno, they were just 1-10 there in the past three months. Fnatic should be able to get back to their roots and take Inferno. Godsent should use their second ban on Dust2, which will leave Fnatic with the choice of either Train or Overpass. They will certainly chose Overpass.

     I think this match is another Miner Classic. Godsent should take Nuke and Fnatic should get a win on Inferno. This is leaning me towards the over at plus money. I’m more frightened about Godsent winning 2-0 than I am of them losing 2-0. The Fnatic form has been horrid since the start of Road to Rio as they are 3-6 over that span. Godsent should manage to get a map. I still see Fnatic as a slight favorite going in to the third map if it is Overpass. I wouldn’t make them a -300 favorite though. Godsent is comfortable on Overpass and uses it as their first pick quite often. I think that is enough to warrant a small investment on the Godsent money line as well.

Miner’s Money Pick: Total maps o2.5 (+125) & Godsent (+230) *0.5u*

 

Gen.G (-125) vs 100 Thieves (-105) – DreamHack NA – 3:00pm EST 

     The last match of the day features 100 Thieves taking on the NA Road to Rio champions, Gen.G. I think the performance of Gen.G at the Road to Rio came as a surprise to everyone. They played well throughout the tourney, but were never a clear favorite to win the whole thing. 100 Thieves were a little disappointing at Rio as they were bounced in the first round of the playoffs by Liquid. 100T and Gen.G actually opened up Road to Rio group play against each other just about a month ago. Gen.G won that match 2-0 after winning Dust2 and Mirage both by a 16-10 score line. It’s worth noting that 100 Thieves fired their coach right after that match.

     Gen.G should get things started by banning Vertigo. This is 100T’s regular first map pick and certainly their best map. 100T will then use their first ban on Overpass as they always do. This is a huge advantage to Gen.G, as they regularly use their first ban on Overpass as well. Gen.G will go on to pick Mirage. They’ve won their last three on Mirage while 100T struggles to play there. They are just 1-5 on Mirage over the last three months. 100T has a difficult decision to make for their map pick. They tend to pick Inferno in these situations, but may be hesitant to do so as they are 3-6 there in their last 9. Gen.G, on the other hand, is 5-1 in their last 6 on Inferno. That leaves 100T on their third option of Dust2, where they just suffered a loss to Gen.G. The second ban for Gen.G should come in on Nuke. This will force 100T to pick between Train or Inferno/Dust2 as the tie breaking map. I see Gen.G as a favorite on the third map no matter which of the three it ends up being.

     I have never been overly impressed by Gen.G. I thought Furia was the best team at Road to Rio, but Gen.G proved they can compete against anybody in North America. I think the map pool with 100 Thieves strongly favors Gen.G. Mirage is a map that favors Gen.G immensely and I make 100T’s map pick essentially a coin flip without Vertigo. I’d also have to say Gen.G should be slightly favored on any of the potential tie breaking maps. Since they should win Mirage, I’ll be backing Gen.G to be able to get it done on one of the remaining two maps. *If Gen.G doesn’t start with a Vertigo ban I would have to strongly favor the over. Be sure to follow my twitter (twitter.com/MoneyMiner_) for updates, recaps and live plays!

Miner’s Money Pick: Gen.G (-125) *1.25u*

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