DreamHack Masters (EU/NA) – May 22, 2020

     Friday kicks off the start to European Group B play as Group A came to a finish on Thursday. Group B is made up of Mousesports, Complexity, BiG and Mad Lions. We also have another North American matchup with playoff implications in MiBR and Chaos. We had our third straight profitable day on Thursday as we finished yet another 2-1 record. We started out with an easy win for Heroic, but then lost two units on Astralis. Astralis just didn’t quite look themself and found themself on the wrong end of a 2-0. We finished the day with a huge win on Furia. They mounted a comeback on Nuke before winning double overtime on Mirage. This was another 2 unit play. We ended up netting just +0.4 units, but you can’t knock a profit. Unit by unit we stack!

DreamHack Record: 6-3 (+1.55u) * 3 day profit streak*

 

Mousesports (-165) vs Complexity (+135) – DreamHack EU – 8:00am EST

     DreamHack is getting our day started with a game that is extremely hard to cap. Neither of these teams were able to perform at the Road to Rio event. They finished in the 13th/14th spot in the European Region. Complexity finished with a 2-5 record and a -39 round differential. Mouse was 3-4, but actually had a positive round differential. Their +4 differential was better than 3 of the top 5 teams. Mouse struggled to close out games and lost plenty of matches they shouldn’t have. It’ll be interesting to see which form they show up in tomorrow. The roster is still talented and it wouldn’t surprise me to see some sort of revenge tour.

     Each of these teams usually use their first ban on Overpass. I think Complexity will bypass that pick to ban Vertigo. Mouse will then have to use their ban on Overpass. Complexity should go on to pick Mirage. Complexity played very well at Mirage over the past couple weeks. They were a perfect 4-0 there in Rio group play. It’s also worth noting that Mouse was 0-3 on Mirage during Rio. Mouse usually uses their first pick on Train. I think it would be smart of them to pass on Train and instead pick Dust2. They have a 4 map winning streak on Dust2 and would have an edge there over Complexity. Complexity has performed well on Dust2, but when you filter to top 20 teams they are just 1-4 since the start of ESL Pro League. Complexity would use their second ban on Inferno, which leaves Mouse to chose either Nuke or Train. Since Train is their usual pick, I would expect to see Train, but make Mouse a favorite on either potential tie breaker.

     Complexity and Mouse haven’t met for a series prior to this one. Mouse has taken time off since their Rio woes, but Complexity went a different route and blew threw the Home Sweet Home Cup. Although Complexity may have a confidence boost, I doubt they’ll be ready for the jump in skill level. This sways me to lean towards Mouse, but their recent form makes me hesitant to pay such a big price. With that being said, I’m going to start by making a play on the over. I think there’s a good chance Complexity steals Mirage to start the series. I make Mouse a favorite on Dust2 and Train. I’m also going to make a play on Mouse to win exactly 2-1. I’ll be putting a lot of confidence in Mouse, but I’ll also be using them as a parlay piece with MiBR.

Miner’s Money Pick: Total Maps o2.5 (+115)

Mad Lions (-140) vs BiG (+110) – DreamHack EU – 11:30am

     This is one of the more intriguing matchups of the day. I haven’t seen a ton of tape on either of these teams. Mad Lions will be playing their first official match since winning Flashpoint 1 (NA). They’ll be looking to keep similar form. Big is coming in to this match having played in the last three Home Sweet Home cups and performing well in each of them. In the most recent event they came in second after falling to Complexity in the finals. Big comes off as a team very similar to Complexity. They’re able to compete against anybody, but lack the consistency to hang with the best of the best. They’re each also too good for lower tier teams.

     Big will get things started by banning Train and Mad Lions will in exchange ban Inferno. Big will then pick Mirage for their first map as they always do. They have been extremely efficient on Mirage winning 15 of their last 19 matches. Mad Lions should remain competitive as they are 9-2 there over the past six months and often use Mirage as their first pick. Mad Lions will use their first pick on Nuke. This is also a map that each team will be comfortable on. Lions come into Nuke on a 7 map win streak, while Big have a 5 map win streak of their own. Big will use their second ban on Overpass which will give Mad Lions the option to play Dust2 or Vertigo for the final map. They will certainly chose Dust2. Mad Lions have won 7 out of there last 10 there while Big comes in on a 3 map losing streak.

     I expect this match to be extremely close throughout each map. These teams don’t have much of a history against each other, but they will each be comfortable with the map pool. Mad Lions may have a little bit more pressure as they’re coming off a championship win at Flashpoint. For me this pick comes down to each teams individual skill level. This leads me to favor the Mad Lions. They also shouldn’t be an under dog coming in to any of the map picks against Big, especially the tie breaker. All things considered, I think he -140 price for Mad Lions is extremely fair.

Miner’s Money Pick: Mad Lions (-140) *1.05u*

 

MiBR (-230) vs Chaos (+170) – DreamHack NA – 3:00pm EST

     The final match of the day comes in the form of a North American match between MiBR and Chaos. MiBR is coming off of a disappointing loss to Furia, while Chaos comes in after a huge win against Liquid. If Chaos is able to find a win in this match they will lock themself and Furia in to the top 2 playoff spots. MiBR and Liquid would then go head to head for the final playoff spot. MiBR should know that a win over Chaos should guarantee themself a playoff spot, as Chaos will most likely lose to Furia in their next match. This would guarantee MiBR a playoff spot no matter the outcome of their last match. They would hold the head to head tie breaker.

     I think each of these teams will be highly motivated to find a win. Chaos looked decent in their win over Liquid, but it almost seemed as if Liquid checked out after they won the first map. They were dominant on Inferno winning 16-4 against Chaos. Chaos went on to steal Liquids map pick before winning Overpass as a tie breaker. I don’t see MiBR giving Chaos the same opportunity that Liquid did. MiBR never takes their foot off the gas and is always pushing for gun fights. MiBR is far superior in terms of dueling and overall skill level. I think this will be too much for Chaos to overcome. MiBR took the series 2-1 last time they met and won their maps by an average of 8.5 rounds. I expect to see something similar today. I’m staying away from the spread and won’t be laying the juice unless I have to. I’ll be opting to use Mouse as a parlay piece to pair with MiBR. *UPDATE: Mouse lost in embarrassing fashion. I’ll be playing MiBR straight at the current price (-200) to win a unit.*

Miner’s Money Pick: MiBR & Mousesports parlay (+130)

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