DreamHack Masters (EU/NA) – May 21, 2020

     The first European group playing at DreamHack will finish up tomorrow. Three teams will qualify for playoffs, while one will be eliminated. The matches will be highlighted by Astralis taking on G2, but North and Heroic will also face off in an important match in terms of playoff implications. North American play will feature two heavy weights when Furia takes on Liquid at 3:00pm (EST). We had an alright day on Wednesday as we finished 2-2, but netted +0.3 units. We also found out we should not bet against Astralis. That is one piece of advice to remember going forward! We’ll be looking for our third profitable day in a row!

DreamHack Record: 4-3 (+1.15u)

 

Heroic (-125) vs North (-105) – DreamHack EU – 8:00am EST

     Heroic and North each come in to this match after a loss on Wednesday. Heroic suffered a heartbreaking loss in overtime on the third map against G2. Each map was decided by 3 rounds or less and each map could have gone either way. North’s match, on the other hand, wasn’t competitive at all. Astralis was in control of that match the whole way. I expected North to give Astralis some competition, but they were clearly outclassed. The match between North and Heroic will help shape the playoff landscape for Group A. This is a must win for Heroic. If they lose to North they will be eliminated no matter the outcome of the other game. If Heroic is able to beat North, then it will be on G2 as there will be a 3-way tie for the last spot if G2 loses to Astralis. Each team will own a head to head win against the other teams in the tie breaker so it will come down to total maps won. A North win will secure themself, G2 and Astralis a playoff spot.

     Heroic and North have played each other on 6 different maps since October. Heroic won 5 of those maps with North’s only win coming on Nuke. Heroic has found confidence on Nuke as they’re 6-2 since that loss. Heroic hasn’t had any consistency in their map bans. In their first match of DreamHack they banned Overpass, but then banned Inferno against G2. I expect them to ban Vertigo against North considering its North’s most comfortable map. Theres a chance they go back to their default ban in Overpass. North will use their ban on Train as usual. Heroic will use their first map pick on Nuke. North will use theirs on Vertigo if it isn’t banned. If it is banned, I think they would opt to play Dust2. Heroic should use their second ban on Overpass/Dust2 depending on what they do with their first. This will leave North with the choice to play either Mirage or Inferno as the tie breaker. North hasn’t looked strong on either map and would have to make Heroic a favorite moving in to map 3.

     My play on this match is going to come in on Heroic. I have liked what I’ve seen from them in their matches against G2 and Astralis. They were extremely competitive in each and North is a step down in terms of the competitions skill level. North looked good against G2, but were much less competitive against Astralis than Heroic. G2 is certainly having issues amongst their camp which lead to North winning the third map when they really had no business in doing so. I also expect Heroic to be a little more motivated. It would be extremely disappointing for them to be auto eliminated from playoffs after performing well in their first two matches.

Miner’s Money Pick: Heroic (-125) 

 

Astralis (-250) vs G2 (+190) – DreamHack EU – 11:00am 

     We have a super series match up to close out Group A play in the European region. Astralis comes in to this match carrying the #1 rank in the world while G2 sits at #5. This will be the third time these teams have matched up for a series in just 8 days. Astralis won each of the prior series without dropping a map. Since then, they have changed in game leaders from Glave to JuGi, but the four other teammates remained. Across the last four maps recently played against Astralis, G2 has only won an average of 7 rounds.  This includes Astralis beating G2 by a score of 16-2 on G2’s best map, Vertigo.

     As I mentioned, Astralis has owned G2 recently and even more so historically. These teams have met for four series since October and Astralis is a perfect 4-0 while only dropping one map. Two of those games did go to overtime, but I wouldn’t trust G2 in overtime considering their recent form. As for maps, G2 should ban Overpass. The last time they strayed away from that Astralis threw it back in their face choosing it for their first pick before winning 16-7. Astralis will continue to use their first ban on Mirage. I think G2 should go back to Vertigo for their first pick. It is their most comfortable map. Astralis should stray away from their regular pick of Nuke. I think they will pick a more T/CT neutral map in Dust2, especially considering G2’s recent Dust struggles. This would relieve some pressure from JuGi. Regardless, G2’s second ban will come in on either of these maps depending on the Astralis pick. This will leave Astralis to pick Inferno over Train as the tie breaking map. Astralis is on a 9 map win streak on Inferno and would look to extend that to 10 on the tie breaker.

     I’ll be backing Astralis on the money line in this one. I’m not thrilled about the price, but I see the map spread as more of a risk. Astralis has had some T side struggles since making the switch from Glave to JuGi. This may cause them to face a large deficit on their map pick. G2 has struggled closing out matches and I think that will ultimately come back to haunt them against a team as good as Astralis. G2 also hasn’t provided any reason to back them of late, especially against Astralis who has ran them out of the server consistently. I expect closer matches than we saw at Rio, but ultimately Astralis will get it done. Astralis has also already secured a playoff spot, so less pressure on JuGi may improve his comfort levels for this one.

Miner’s Money Pick: Astralis (-250) *2 units*

 

Furia (-125) vs Liquid (-105) – DreamHack NA – 3:00pm

      Today’s North American matchup features the two highest rank teams in the group. We’ll have Furia taking on Team Liquid for the third time this month. The previous two matchups have gone in the favor of Furia and each came in 2-0 fashion. Furia enters this match after a convincing win against MiBR, while Liquid will be looking to bounce back after an embarrassing match to Chaos. They dominated the first map by a 16-4 scoreline before dropping the next two as a huge favorite (-600). Liquid just hasn’t looked quite themself when playing online as opposed to LAN. They’ve also been shaky after the Krieg nerf, so it may be a mix of both.

     Furia looks like they are going to pick up right where they left off in Road to Rio. I expect DreamHack to be a revenge tour as they were clearly the best NA team, but fell short losing in the championship. Liquid also looks like they kept the same form from Rio. They show spurts of their true talent, but eventually concede matches they shouldn’t. It’s similar to what’s going on in the G2 camp.

     For this match, I think we’ll see Furia start off by banning Dust2. Liquid will then ban Train. I think Furia will continue to pick Vertigo against Liquid. They have done that each of their last two matchups and won by an average of 7.5 rounds. Liquid will most likely go back to Inferno, although they didn’t have an answer for Furia last time they played there. Liquid played well there against Chaos and it looked to be their most comfortable map. Furia will then ban Nuke which will leave Liquid to chose between Overpass or Mirage. They’ll have to pick their poison as Furia comes in with a 9 map win streak on Mirage and a 4 mapper on Overpass. I would expect to see Liquid take Mirage as it’s the map they play more often.

      I just have to back Furia in this one. They continue to get no respect in the market. The first time these teams met in Rio, Liquid came in as a -190 favorite. The second time around, which came after they loss, they were -150 favorites. We are now given the third match within three weeks and Liquid still isn’t plus money. Liquid is listed at -105 which leaves Furia at -125. Not much has changed  for Liquid since the last matchup, while Furia seems to continue to improve. I would also have to make Furia a favorite on the third map. It could even be argues they’re the favorite on Liquids pick! I’ll be backing the short favorite to get it done in this one.

Miner’s Money Pick: Furia (-125) *2 Units*

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