CS_Summit6 – June 25

     We have another CSGO event that began on Wednesday and will play through July 5th. Summit6 is split into the European and American regions. The European region has four groups of four teams, while the American region has two groups of four teams. All of the groups will have their top two finishers moving on to playoffs in their respected regions. This event also goes towards regional major rankings, so teams will be motivated to place high in order to receive more rank points, as well as more prize money. There will be six Summit matches per day during the group play stage. The European region has four matches per day starting at the 9am and 12pm (EST) time slots. The American region also has two time slots, but only one game for each slot. Since there are so many matches, I’ll only be posting my favorite plays instead of previewing every match. Feel free to DM on twitter (twitter.com/MoneyMiner_) if you have any questions about matches I did not preview!

     We started hot on Wednesday, as my Summit twitter picks went 4-1 on the games I played. I’ll be looking to keep that up with our first ‘official’ picks coming in for Thursdays slate.

 

Ence (-130) vs Heroic (+100) – 9:00am EST

     I wouldn’t say this is one of my favorite plays of the day, but I’m not going to leave you hanging without any early morning action. I’ll be staying away from the NiP game, so this is where we need to find an edge to start the day. Heroic qualified for this event on Monday after beating Endpoint and Fnatic. They looked good in the qualifying matches, but they didn’t have the best competition.  Ence was invited to this tournament, so they didn’t have to go through qualifiers earlier in the week. Ence has been playing much better since the roster move to Jamppi, but Jamppi won’t be playing in this event. Ence will instead be starting xseveN, who was struggling during the teams appearance at Road to Rio. I believe this is where we find our edge. 

      If Jamppi was in the line up I would definitely be backing Ence at the current number. This isn’t the case, and as we’ve seen, there’s an adjustment period after all roster changes. Jamppi and xSeveN are very different in terms of their style of play, which has a ripple effect on the way their teammates can play.  The adjustment may not be as severe for Ence since they’ve played with xSeveN in the past, but it still may take some time to start vibing as a unit again. I also think that Heroic gains a slight edge from the map pool. They should be comfortable on the Ence pick of Train/Dust2, and will force Ence to play Nuke. Ence struggled at Nuke during the Road to Rio event and have a 4-4 record over the past three months. If we see a third map, I assume it will be either Mirage or Dust2/Train and neither team will be too strong of a favorite. With an even map pool, I think there’s plenty of value on Heroic at the current price, considering Ence will have xSeveN instead of Jamppi.

Miner’s Money Pick: Heroic (+100) 

 

BiG (-115) vs FaZe (-115) – 12:00pm EST

      Now this is the most intriguing match of the day. We have BiG and FaZe matching up for the third best of three series since June 9th. Both of those matches were high stakes as well. The first one was an upper bracket semi-final, while the most recent meeting was a consolidation final. Let me tell you how those matches went. To put it bluntly, BiG made FaZe their bitch. BiG took the first meeting with a 16-9 win on Nuke and a 16-5 win on FaZe’s map pick, Inferno. They followed that up with a 16-5 win on Nuke and a 22-19 win on Mirage in the consolidation final. It’ll be interesting to see if FaZe figured something out for this match up.

     The Summit6 map pool is hard to predict because they flip a coin to see who gets the first ban/pick. With that being said, one of the first two maps will certainly be Nuke. BiG dismantled FaZe’s strategy on Nuke and should go right back to the well to win another map. If FaZe decides to ban Nuke, BiG will punish pick Vertigo. FaZe will most likely use their map pick on Mirage. It’s the only map they could put up a fight on. We’ll most likely see Dust2 for the third map. Each of these teams perform well on Dust2, but if BiG gets first ban, they could ban Dust2 and force FaZe onto Inferno or Overpass. FaZe rarely plays Overpass, and they’ve been getting smoked on Inferno since the roster change to Bymas. 

      I think BiG is getting disrespected by this number. If you take away the team names and compare the stats from their recent meetings, BiG would be a heavy favorite. Every gambler should know that lines aren’t set based purely on the raw chance of each team winning. Theres a psychology to it. Book makers know that the general public will be drawn to backing big name teams like FaZe no matter the recent form of both teams. They also know that their handle would be extremely uneven if they listed FaZe at plus money. This together creates some bias in the number listed, and that’s where we find our value. I will gladly back the team that’s been in better form and that has not just won, but dominated the recent meetings, in a ‘pickem’ scenario. When you mix in the fact that BiG should have an auto win on Nuke, and is evenly matched or better on remaining maps, this becomes a double down. LETS GO BIG 3-PEAT.

Miner’s Money Pick: BiG (-115) *2.3u*

 

OG (-130) vs Heretics (+100) – 12:00pm EST

     Heretics and OG will be meeting for the other game starting at noon eastern time. This is a match I’m very excited for, as I haven’t seen either of these teams in action too often. Heretics was a pleasant surprise at the Road to Rio event. They snuck in to playoffs before eventually finishing 6th, but since then I haven’t seen much from them. They’ve been busy beating up on lower tier teams. OG hasn’t been on my radar much since the conclussion of ESL Pro League 11. They competed in a couple of qualifiers, failing to qualify, and got bounced from Blast Finals without a win. There seems to be something off within the team. In an interview during the Blast Finals, one of their players commented about the team not accepting their assigned roles, and everyone wanting to be the star. For this to be happening is one thing, but to say it in an interview takes it to a whole new level. If you’ve been part of a sport team in the past, you would know that things are better handled in house. Saying those type of things on an interview just makes things worse for the camp. The map pool for this match shouldn’t favor either team too heavily, so I’ll be fading OG as I see some turbulent times ahead for them. I’ll be fading them a lot throughout this event, at least until they can prove the players are all on the same page. Especially in games like these, where there’s no huge edge to gain in the map pool.

Miner’s Money Pick: Heretics (+100)

 

Cloud9 (-150) vs Gen.G (+120) – 6:00pm EST

     The final match of the day isn’t one that ill be looking to be on too much pregame. I like Cloud9 in this spot since they have a much higher ceiling than Gen.G. Gen.G can play well, but not much better than that. They’ve also been on a skid, going just 2-5 in best of three series at Blast and DreamHack. Those five losses all came in the form of a 2-0 score line as well. Cloud9 has a solid map pool that includes a 5 map winning streak on Gen.G’s default map pick. They also ban Gen.G’s secondary map pick, so I think there’s a good chance we see a Cloud9 2-0 here. The price is extremely fair as well. If they fall behind early I may also make a live play on their money line.

Miner’s Money Pick: Cloud9 -1.5 (+200) *0.5u*

 

Furia (-140) vs Evil Geniuses (+110) – 3:00pm EST

     I won’t have a play for the first North American match of the day. I’m still not confident in EG’s form and Furia has looked like the best team in the NA region. I think this line is fairly priced, but EG has dominated Furia in the past. They hold a 17-4 map advantage against them. A lot of those matches were on LAN, so they shouldn’t carry too much weight, but I wont be playing either side pregame. Look for tweets for potential live spots and map specific plays!

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