Blast Premiere Spring Finals – June 19, 2020

     Friday kicks off the start of the lower bracket semi finals in the Blast Premiere European Region. We also have the upper bracket finals match in the North American region. The board is stacked with extremely even odds for each match. We’ll be looking to capitalize on each game after having a bad day on Thursday. We started out losing NaVi -1.5 and a parlay with their money line. Things got worse as we lost our two unit max play on Vitality against FaZe. We managed to salvage some of the day by hitting Furia money line and using them in a parlay with BiG in ESL action. All in all, we finished 2-3, but lost 1.88 units because of the large play on Vitality. We remain profitable throughout the event and will build on that Friday.

Blast Premiere Playoffs Record: 11-8 (+4.04u)

 

Natus Vincere (-115) vs G2 (-115) – 10:30am EST

     NaVi and G2 will meet for the opening semi-final match of the lower bracket. These teams met just 10 days ago for the DreamHack upper bracket semi-final, where G2 bested NaVi by a 2-0 score line. This match will be a little bit different though, because the loser will be out of the event. The last time they met it wasn’t an elimination game. I think we’re in for an extremely competitive matchup between two of the best teams in the world. It should be a great way to start the day.

     I think G2 will have the first move for ban and pick, since NaVi lasted longer in the upper bracket. G2 will start things by banning Overpass. NaVi will then use their ban on Vertigo. Each of these bans take away a top map from their opponent. Both of these teams choose Dust2 as their map pick 50% of the time. I think G2 will do what they did last time, and pick a different map in hopes that NaVi will pick Dust2. G2 should pick Mirage in that case. NaVi should punish G2 for this and not pick Dust2. It would make more sense for them to pick Nuke or Train, since they have been struggling on Dust2. G2 will use their second ban on Inferno and force NaVi to pick between Dust2 or Nuke/Train as the final map. I’d imagine we’d see Dust2, unless they plan to stay away from that map completely.

     This is a tough match to pick a side on. G2 outplayed NaVi in their most recent match, but NaVi tend to play a better game when their backs are against the wall. This match up is pretty even from a map pool perspective and each team will be familiar with what their opponent wants to do. I think NaVi will have plenty of improvements to make after watching their tape from the last match. They were extremely flat and slow out of the gate, so that will be a point of emphasis from the start. G2 have been fighting hard in all of their matches, win or lose. So, I think we see this one go the distance. I doubt either team comes out and 2-0’s the other. I may be looking for a live spot on NaVi since I like them in big pressure games, but it depends on how things look to start. Be sure to keep an eye out on my twitter (twitter.com/MoneyMiner_) for any live plays throughout the day. 

Miner’s Money Pick: total maps o2.5 (-110) *1.1u*

 

Ninjas in Pyjamas (-110) vs Vitality (-120) – 2:00pm EST

     The second lower bracket semi-final happening in the European region features Vitality taking on the Ninjas in Pyjamas. This will be the sixth time these two teams meet for a best of three series since the start of Road to Rio. During that stretch, NiP has taken two of the series and Vitality won the other three. Four of the five series have been decided on a third map, with the only 2-0 coming just after the NiP roster change. NiP was able to take the most recent meeting during the DreamHack playoffs. We should be in for another competitive series between two teams who have consistently given us thrillers.

     NiP will begin by banning Vitality’s regular first pick, Dust2. Vitality will then use their ban on Train. NiP would regularly pick either Overpass or Vertigo, but Vitality has bested them there in the last couple of meetings. This was enough to force NiP into picking Mirage in their last meeting, where they were able to find a 16-5 win. Vitality will most certainly use their map pick on Nuke, as Nuke is a map that has been giving the Ninjas a ton of problems. NiP will use their second ban on Vertigo, which will force Vitality to choose between Mirage/Overpass or Inferno for the last map. I would imagine we see them pick Overpass if possible, or Inferno if the other choice is Mirage.

     I’m going to make a couple of plays for this match. First off, I will be following the trend of their last matches and bet the over. This is an elimination game, so I imagine both teams will be doing everything they can to avoid losing. This usually leads to a more cautious style of play that results in closer matches. These two teams are also very familiar with each other and shouldn’t be blindsided by their opponent. My second play on this match will be on the NiP money line. I think they are trending in the right direction. NiP is also extremely solid across the roster, so as long as Zywoo is contained, they should find the win in the end. NiP to win exactly 2-1 (+250) could be a good bet to throw some lunch money on, as NiP should lose on Nuke.

Miner’s Money Picks: NiP (-110) *1.1u* & o2.5 maps (-110) *1.1u*

 

Evil Geniuses (-130) vs MiBR (+100) – 5:30pm EST

     MiBR and Evil Geniuses will close out a great slate by battling for a spot in the grand finals. The loser will be relegated to the lower bracket finals, where they will have to face Furia for a chance to compete in the grand final. Both of these teams found themself in the upper bracket final after finding upset wins in the semi-finals. EG was able to best Liquid in a three map series after getting blown out on map one. MiBR upset Furia in convincing fashion as they took the series 2-0. MiBR and Evil Geniuses have met twice now in 2020. They split series, with each team winning 2-1.

     MiBR will get things started by using their first ban on Nuke. This hurts EG’s map pool, as Nuke is their first pick 40% of the time. Evil Geniuses will then use their ban on Overpass. The last two times these teams met, MiBR lost their map pick. I think we see them give Vertigo another shot though. They play Vertigo well and its a map that EG is just 2-4 on over the past three months. EG will most likely use their pick on Inferno. MiBRs second ban will come in on Mirage, leaving EG to pick between Dust2 or Train for the tie breaker.

     I’m going to be backing the under dog in this one. Although EG was able to beat MiBR on Vertigo in their last meeting, I don’t see that happening again today. MiBR is also extremely comfortable on Inferno and Dust2. I would make both of those map coin flips, so winning their map pick will be key. EG won’t go down without a fight, so don’t be surprised to see another over in this final match. I haven’t decided if I’m going to pay that or not yet, but if I do I will throw it on twitter. The over is 8-2 in EG’s last 10 series, but is just 3-7 during MiBRs last 10. MiBR money line is the value play in this one.

Miner’s Money Pick: MiBR (+100)

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