Blast Premiere Showdown – June 3, 2020

     We have another day full of solid best of one matchups for Blast Premiere on Wednesday. On Tuesday we didn’t find a ton of success as we finished the day 2-3-1 for (-1.5u).  I was completely wrong about Virtus Pro, which accounted for two of our losses. Dignitas was also completely dominated by Mad Lions. Ninjas in Pyjamas came through for us with an easy win over Saw, but chocked away a 15-12 lead against Vitality which accounts for our tie. The blown NiP lead changes the day from -0.3u to the -1.5u we finished. It’s safe to say that I enjoy best of three series much more than the best of one format. My process for finding value doesn’t exactly translate to the best of one format. With that being said, I am not a quitter and will continue to post picks for a majority of the best of ones as planned, but I’m looking forward to the bo3 Blast Playoffs coming up this weekend! Let’s dive right in to Wednesday’s slate.

Blast Premiere Group Play Record: 5-5-2 (-1.59u) 

 

Ence (-400) vs Saw (+310) – 9:30am EST

     This is another high risk low reward play for me. I did it on Tuesday with Ninjas in Pyjamas and they went on to beat Saw 16-7 after a 8-7 first half. I just think Saw is playing out of their skill level. I really don’t see them winning a game in this group. They have the ability to make matches close, but in the end their skill deficiency should always show. I don’t feel comfortable giving away any rounds with the spread in counter strike, but I will be playing Ence to win a half of a unit.

Miner’s Money Pick: Ence (-400) *2 units*

 

Virtus.Pro (-170) vs Dignitas (+140) – 10:45am EST

     I backed VP in both of their matches on Tuesday and they were dominated in each. I thought that this VP roster would come out and surprise teams at Blast, but it seemed like they didn’t know how to play Counter Strike. I think they find success in the CIS region based on their aiming abilities, but their team play is lacking. Jame also looked very timid with his AWP. Since the skill gap is shrunk at Blast, VP struggled to get things going. They were unable to trade in a majority of situations they found themself in, and constantly let bomb sites get overtaken. They started most rounds with a man disadvantage. The rounds they had an advantage in they eventually blew because they weren’t in a position to trade out deaths. Dignitas has looked putrid in their first two matches, but they know how to play team Counter Strike. Their problem was that Mad Lions and Mouse also know how to play cohesively, so Dig’s lack of gun skill showed. I think Dig has a good chance to beat VP if they focus on map control and trading kills. The Dig vets also don’t want to go defeated and this is one of their best chance to find a win. The loser of this game should end up eliminated from the group. Also, you  kind of have to take plus money with two teams playing equally as bad.

Miner’s Money Pick: Dignitas (+140)

 

Ninjas in Pyjamas (-115) vs Ence (-115) – 12:00pm EST

     Ence and NiP met just a few days ago towards the end of DreamHack group play. NiP was able to secure their first DreamHack win and eliminate Ence from the playoffs at the same time. Since that win, NiP has went on to beat Astralis and Saw, before tying Vitality in a game they should have won. Ence has only played one match at Blast and also tied Vitality, but Vitality looked like they should have won that match. Ence has shown sings of greatness with the addition of Jamppi, but they seem to lack consistency with such a young roster. The NiP roster move seemed to hinder their play at first, but they have been coming together as a team since their win over Ence. I think NiP has the better form and should be able to come out on top of this best of one.

Miner’s Money Pick: Ninjas in Pyjamas (-115) *1.5u*

 

Fnatic (-125) vs Mousesports (-105) – 1:15pm EST

      We finally get a rematch of the ESL Pro League best of five final that went the distance. Since that match, both of these teams have completely fallen off of the wagon. Neither team has been able to sustain any sort of success and both failed to make playoffs at Road to Rio. Each of these teams have managed to find a win at Blast Premiere, but both of those wins came against Dignitas. Fnatic has played one more match and lost to Mad Lions in a game that wasn’t all too competitive. I mentioned in a previous preview that I felt like Mousesports turned a corner after their matches at Gamers without Boarders. I expect them to carry the momentum they’ve gained in to this match against Fnatic. I’m not ready to say the same about the Fnatic roster just yet.

Miner’s Money Pick: Mousesports (-105) *1.05u*

 

Vitality (-155) vs Astralis (+125) – 2:30pm EST

     We close today’s European play with what should be a great match. Astralis comes in to this match with a 1-1 record at Blast, while Vitality has tied both of their matches. Astralis is basically playing with a brand new line up after losing  their in game leader, Glave, as well as their clutch man, Xypx. I faded Astralis in their first match with the new lineup and was able to cash on NiP as a slight underdog. They had the day off on Tuesday and I’m sure this new lineup went to work practicing in that time. I think Vitality is playing very well, but they’ve had troubles closing out matches when they have the lead. If they continue to struggle in this fashion, then this Astralis lineup should still be able to punish them for it. The loss of Xypx hurts them a ton, but I think the play of Device should counteract that of Zywoo. After that, I would have to give a slight edge to the remaining Astralis lineup then the other four on Vitality. This is another match where I would be backing the dog no matter what team that was, so let’s ride Astralis with the rare chance to back them as an underdog.

Miner’s Money Pick: Astralis (+125)

 

Evil Geniuses (-150) vs Cloud9 (+125) – 4:30pm EST

     My last play of the day comes from the first match of the North American region. Cloud9 comes in to this one after an embarrassing loss to Triumph. EG on the other hand, is coming off a big win over 100 Thieves as a slight under dog. My reasoning behind this play is pretty simple. I love playing Cloud9 as an underdog. They are a team with an extremely high ceiling that can show up and compete with just about anyone in NA, especially in a best of one format. Cloud9 is also a team that is good to fade as a favorite due to the fact that they have a low floor. Cloud9 has also been able to beat Evil Geniuses in both of the series they’ve played against them since late April. I like their chances as an underdog in this one.

Miner’s Money Pick: Cloud9 (+125) 

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