2020 Mid-Season Cup – Semifinals Betting Preview Saturday May 30, 2020

JD Gaming vs. FunPlus Phoenix – 1:00AM ET
Gen.G vs. Top Esports – 6:00AM ET
 

We’re down to 4 teams left in the Mid-Season Cup with Gen.G as the only remaining team from the LCK. JD Gaming was also able to earn a spot by winning a tiebreaker match against DragonX where they were down 5-0 in kills to start. Their top laner, Zoom, was able to become unkillable as Mordekaiser and DragonX really cooled off as a team and became weak for late game. The other 2 LPL teams still in the tournament, FunPlus Phoenix & Top Esports, qualified in Group A on Thursday. I’m glad that we are done with the best-of-one format, which can have pretty high variance. For example, the red side won over 70% of the games in the Group Stage. The Semifinals, also referred to as the Knockout Stage, consists of single elimination, best-of-five series. The first game should be very fun and interesting because it is blind pick, while the rest of the series is draft pick.

I had a very profitable day for Group B, going 5-1 on my moneyline bets all for 1 unit each! I also went break-even with my DFS lineups which I was fine with. I have picks for both match-ups on this slate, and I will also preview my plan of attack for the Semifinals from a DFS perspective for Fanduel & Draftkings. The Draftkings slate actually includes a match-up from the Mid-Season Showdown, so I’ll primarily be focusing on Fanduel. All of my bets have been posted to my Twitter @TonyLavenderML, but since this is a smaller slate, I will include all picks in this blog.

 

JD Gaming vs. FunPlus Phoenix – 1:00AM ET

Moneyline Odds: JD Gaming (-145) | FunPlus Phoenix (+115)

Map Handicap: FunPlus Phoenix +1.5 (-182) | JD Gaming -1.5 (+152)

Projected Lineups

JDG: TOP – Zoom | JNG – Kanavi | MID – Yagao | ADC – LokeN | SUP – LvMao

FPX: TOP – Khan | JNG – Tian | MID – Doinb | ADC – Lwx | SUP – Crisp

FunPlus Phoenix has not done well against JD Gaming in the past, including getting swept in the 2020 LPL Spring Playoff Semifinals.  FPX has looked solid recently with Khan taking over for GimGoon in the top lane, and Lwx was one of the top ADCs in the Group Stage. JD Gaming was a bit disorganized to start their day, but they quickly got back into form and reminded everyone why they are one of the favorites to win this tournament. LokeN played decent as Miss Fortune in the first game and made good use of his bullet time ultimate, but he really dominated as Aphelios, and especially as Ezreal. If I was FPX, I would consider banning Ezreal to slow down LokeN a bit.

JD Gaming basically fumbled the #1 seed to Gen.G, although it seemed to actually give them an easier match-up for the Semifinals. I know that FunPlus Phoenix will not go down easy in this spot, but JD Gaming is the more complete team and should be able to advance to the Finals. I really liked what I saw from JD Gaming after a slow start in their first game. These odds also seem to favor FPX a bit too much, and I think JD Gaming is great value. You certainly can’t go wrong with JD Gaming Moneyline -145, but my favorite bet for this series is JD Gaming -1.5 Map Handicap +152. A 3-1 or 3-0 sweep for JD Gaming seems highly likely. These odds put them at less than a 40% chance to cover the 1.5 spread, which looks too low to me so I’m locking this in for 1 unit. For daily fantasy, I am going to be heavier on stacking JDG over FPX but will have some exposure to both. JD Gaming is cheaper for the most part on Fanduel, which I really like. This may be a slate where you need 2 ADCs in your lineup and I think the winning Fanduel lineup will include the ADC from the winner of this match-up. Thus, LokeN (ADC) is looking like an excellent DFS play to me.

Favorite Bet: JD Gaming -1.5 Map Handicap (+152) 
Favorite DFS Play: LokeN (ADC)

 

Gen.G vs. Top Esports – 6:00AM ET

Moneyline Odds: Top Esports (-143) | Gen.G (+113)

Map Handicap: Gen.G +1.5 (-189) | Top Esports -1.5 (+154)

Projected Lineups

GEN: TOP – Rascal | JNG – Clid | MID – Bdd | ADC – Ruler | SUP – Life

TES: TOP – 369 | JNG – Karsa | MID – knight | ADC – JackeyLove | SUP – yuyanjia

These odds are similar to our first match-up, with Top Esports as the favorite. Gen.G is the last hope for the LCK, and I do like their chances a lot. Many people consider Top Esports the best team in the Semifinals and it is easy to see why. To start, knight is one of the most dominant mid laners and can carry them to victory in plenty of scenarios. Their most popular player, JackeyLove, has been an amazing addition to this team and has been so consistent as ADC. However, Top Esports did show some weakness against FunPlus Phoenix, especially in the top lane with 369. The battle between Rascal and 369 could have huge implications on the result of this series.

I was really impressed with how Gen.G played in the Group Stage after such a disappointing finish to the LCK Spring Playoffs. They were back to looking like the team that took 1st place in the Spring Season, where they won 31 of their 44 games played. Bdd was outstanding in the mid lane for Gen.G in the Group Stage, and I think he can handle this challenging task ahead of him. Clid also had a great performance as jungler, and there’s no reason he can’t replicate that again. This series is going to be intense and could go either way, but Gen.G is extremely viable as a plus money underdog. Gen.G is not going to go down without a fight and could easily advance to the Finals. I doubt we will see a sweep for either side, and I think a full 5-game series is a strong possibility. This should be a barnburner. Thus, I will be hammering Gen.G +1.5 Map Handicap -189. At -189 odds, this bet has an implied probability of 65.4%. I believe the true probability is much higher! This bet makes a lot of sense to me and should win a very high percentage of the time. I lean towards having more ownership for Gen.G in DFS especially since they are cheaper. Bdd (MID) is my favorite play of the slate, but I would definitely make sure to have some lineups with knight (MID) in there too!

Favorite Bet: Gen.G +1.5 Map Handicap (-189) 
Favorite DFS Play: Bdd (MID)

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